I think the percentage on Montgomery is more like 50%. I say that because he as you point out is a very strong QO candidate. Unless some team goes bats-shit crazy with an offer.
Also I think Hick's availability will depend on Helsely's health.
I see Yepez more in the 90% and DeJong as well. I see O'Neill as 100% unless they move Carlson or Nootbaar. With Walker in the fold and Donovan being a better than avg OF, and Victor Scott on the way. TON is just to iffy. When healthy he is great but he just can't seem to stay healthy. I think Calrson is higher than 50% for the right deal. I also see z
Burleson higher as well. Even Edman is probably closer to 50%. I have an article at Gateway City Sports where my 5 most likely are DeJong, O'Neill, Carlson, Flaherty and Edman.
Understand where you are coming from but I think the fact that they've never engaged Montgomery on an extension plus the fact Mo says the players they can get are better than the draft pick makes me think he's already got an idea of the market on Montgomery. Plus it's better for Monty because then he can go into the FA market unencumbered.
I don't tie Hicks to Helsley, mainly because 1) they aren't going to be too worried about winning games if they do a big sell and 2) they can shift Gallegos into the ninth until Helsley's available.
I think the only reason TON won't get moved is that people are too scared of his injury history. I'm not sure even with whatever *waves hand* this relationship is the team wants to ditch him for pennies on the dollar. You are probably right that I should have upped Yepez and DeJong.
That's the problem you never know with Mozeliak and impending FAs. Quintana is a prime example, They way he pitched for us last year why wouldn't you make him an offer. Then You had Matt Capenter getting an extension for WHAT?
First, I do not believe the Cardinals will be involved in a big sale strategy. I mean we are talking about Mo who flat out lied in the off-season by saying we will get the best all-around catcher available and then saying payroll will go up! While he was technically right on the second one. The statement led fans to belive it would include a big deal not juts higher due to arbitration figures.
Second, I also don't think he will give up top 5 or top 10 prospects in any deal which, to get they help they need we will have to deal prospects.
Quintana got a $13 million per year deal with the Mets. The QO last year was $18.4 million. Q would have jumped on that deal, the club would have overpaid, and (assuming everything is the same) they still wouldn't have had him pitch. The Matt Carpenter extension was premature but it did come after his almost MVP season so that made some sense, just not what I would have done with another year left before you had to make a decision.
He's not giving up prospects but I don't know that he'll need to depending on what he's looking to get back. He's not likely to get established pitching at the deadline as the contenders need it and anyone else will probably wait until the offseason to market their guys. He's going to get hopefully almost-major-league-ready players that can get a little baptism this year or be in the mix for next year.
The bigger problems will probably require an aggressive offseason.
I would have been fine with $13 mil on Quintana. and if was not with the Mets would he have gotten hurt?
I get what you are saying about maybe not dealing any prospects depending on what he thinks or wants to get. I just can't see him making nickel and dime deals and calling it good.
I was saying that the club, if they extended him the QO, would have had to pay him $18 million. The argument that they should have paid him $13 million after declining to offer him a QO is reasonable.
Yeah, I am not suggesting they should have made a QO to Quintana. I think that would have been extremely foolish. It would have been 3 times his salary. An that is the one thing that makes a QO to Monty dicey is that it is Double his salary. How much do you perceive his value in FA?
I think the percentage on Montgomery is more like 50%. I say that because he as you point out is a very strong QO candidate. Unless some team goes bats-shit crazy with an offer.
Also I think Hick's availability will depend on Helsely's health.
I see Yepez more in the 90% and DeJong as well. I see O'Neill as 100% unless they move Carlson or Nootbaar. With Walker in the fold and Donovan being a better than avg OF, and Victor Scott on the way. TON is just to iffy. When healthy he is great but he just can't seem to stay healthy. I think Calrson is higher than 50% for the right deal. I also see z
Burleson higher as well. Even Edman is probably closer to 50%. I have an article at Gateway City Sports where my 5 most likely are DeJong, O'Neill, Carlson, Flaherty and Edman.
Understand where you are coming from but I think the fact that they've never engaged Montgomery on an extension plus the fact Mo says the players they can get are better than the draft pick makes me think he's already got an idea of the market on Montgomery. Plus it's better for Monty because then he can go into the FA market unencumbered.
I don't tie Hicks to Helsley, mainly because 1) they aren't going to be too worried about winning games if they do a big sell and 2) they can shift Gallegos into the ninth until Helsley's available.
I think the only reason TON won't get moved is that people are too scared of his injury history. I'm not sure even with whatever *waves hand* this relationship is the team wants to ditch him for pennies on the dollar. You are probably right that I should have upped Yepez and DeJong.
That's the problem you never know with Mozeliak and impending FAs. Quintana is a prime example, They way he pitched for us last year why wouldn't you make him an offer. Then You had Matt Capenter getting an extension for WHAT?
First, I do not believe the Cardinals will be involved in a big sale strategy. I mean we are talking about Mo who flat out lied in the off-season by saying we will get the best all-around catcher available and then saying payroll will go up! While he was technically right on the second one. The statement led fans to belive it would include a big deal not juts higher due to arbitration figures.
Second, I also don't think he will give up top 5 or top 10 prospects in any deal which, to get they help they need we will have to deal prospects.
Quintana got a $13 million per year deal with the Mets. The QO last year was $18.4 million. Q would have jumped on that deal, the club would have overpaid, and (assuming everything is the same) they still wouldn't have had him pitch. The Matt Carpenter extension was premature but it did come after his almost MVP season so that made some sense, just not what I would have done with another year left before you had to make a decision.
He's not giving up prospects but I don't know that he'll need to depending on what he's looking to get back. He's not likely to get established pitching at the deadline as the contenders need it and anyone else will probably wait until the offseason to market their guys. He's going to get hopefully almost-major-league-ready players that can get a little baptism this year or be in the mix for next year.
The bigger problems will probably require an aggressive offseason.
I would have been fine with $13 mil on Quintana. and if was not with the Mets would he have gotten hurt?
I get what you are saying about maybe not dealing any prospects depending on what he thinks or wants to get. I just can't see him making nickel and dime deals and calling it good.
I was saying that the club, if they extended him the QO, would have had to pay him $18 million. The argument that they should have paid him $13 million after declining to offer him a QO is reasonable.
Yeah, I am not suggesting they should have made a QO to Quintana. I think that would have been extremely foolish. It would have been 3 times his salary. An that is the one thing that makes a QO to Monty dicey is that it is Double his salary. How much do you perceive his value in FA?
He'll probably get at least $20 million per on the market.
Well, he does have Boras as an agent.