Who Stays, Who Goes?

A completely uninformed look at the Cardinals' trade deadline.

The draft and the All-Star Game are now in the rearview mirror, so baseball turns its collective attention now to the trading deadline. Set on August 1 this year, most years for the Cardinals there’s a number of rumors here or there, people saying they are “checking in” on this player or are linked to that player. Usually that comes to naught—we all remember the buzz around Juan Soto last year, culminating in pictures of John Mozeliak and Mike Rizzo together at a game—and the Cards wind up with some fairly uninspiring but usually useful piece for a playoff run.

This year is completely different, of course. Mozeliak said in his conversation with Martin Kilcoyne that “we will be trading people” and it’s possible that it goes beyond the upcoming free agents. So with that in mind and in the spirit that I’m quite regularly wrong, let’s put some percentages on whether a player will be gone before August 2.

Chris Stratton—100%. Every contender needs a reliable arm in the bullpen. That’s why the Cardinals acquired him last year in the Jose Quintana deal, after all. Stratton is striking out a batter an inning and has a K/BB rate over 3.5. Someone will give some sort of mid-range prospect for him and he’s also one I could see the Cards re-signing this winter.

Jordan Montgomery—90%. Mo said in that conversation with Kilcoyne that the players that are free agents have more value now than a qualifying offer pick does. That’s a little interesting to hear given how the Cardinals have hoarded draft picks in the past, rarely getting into the market for a player with a QO attached (Willson Contreras a notable exception), and how well Randy Flores has been drafting.

The only player on this list likely to get a QO would be Montgomery. Given the dearth of available arms on the market and how well Monty’s been pitching, the club should be able to get a decent return for him. This assumes, of course, that the hamstring is fine and given we’ve not heard anything about it over the All-Star Break, I think it’s a fair assumption.

Jordan Hicks—85%. The transformation of Hicks into the sort of late inning closer his velocity always indicated he could be has been exciting. Just two months ago people were clamoring for him to be released, now he could bring back the biggest haul at the deadline. Electric arms are always a big key in the playoffs and even a contender with a fairly settled bullpen would take a close look at the price tag to add him into their mix. There’s a small chance that Hicks, being a product of the farm team and finally coming into his own, could be an extension candidate. I think the state of the team makes that less likely than it would have been in a normal year.

Jack Flaherty—85%. It used to be we thought Flaherty wouldn’t be a Cardinal in 2024 because the club wouldn’t be able to afford his services. Now it feels like the team is in a spot where they don’t want to bring him back even as his price point likely falls into their budget. The question is, of course, what that market is going to look like in terms of talent. Will teams play for the dynamic possibilities he brings or will they be tempered by the roller coaster that is his results?

Paul DeJong—70%. Who had “Paul DeJong has trade value” on their 2023 prediction sheet? That was pretty unexpected even earlier in the year. Now, though, DeJong seems to have settled into a power/defense combination that will have some contenders thinking about adding a power bat to the bench. DeJong has 20 extra base hits in 221 at bats and the two options could be an incentive to the right team. If not, the buyouts are pretty low. Like pretty much everyone on here, he won’t be bringing back major league talent most likely, but he could nab an intriguing prospect or two.

Juan Yepez—70%. Look, you want to say “Good for Juan Yepez, though!” Have him be moved in the next two weeks. It’s clear that this roster is too crowded for him and that he could help some major league team somewhere. I don’t know that he’s going to blossom into being an All-Star at any point but he’s done enough at AAA and his time in the bigs to deserve regular playing time. I don’t think he gets it in St. Louis so even if they can just move him for a player not on the 40-man, it’s probably a win. It definitely is for him.

Tyler O’Neill—65%. It’s fairly clear that the organization is ready to move on from O’Neill and the feeling may be mutual. The early season kerfluffle over his hustle was the first sign and the fact that it seems he’s never able to stay on the field doesn’t help either. Until recently, I thought he was a free agent at the end of the year but he has another season of arbitration. That said, if he can return in time (and I expect he’ll be activated very soon, perhaps even in time for Friday’s game against Washington) his power potential will be intriguing to some, especially since they could have him for another year.

Giovanny Gallegos—50%. Gallegos has been a solid contributor to the Cardinals ever since coming over at the deadline in 2018. He has stretches where he looks terrible but he always rights the ship and becomes a lockdown reliever again. The Cards signed him to an extension in spring that locks him down through next season with a 2025 option. All that said, bullpen arms are at a premium at the deadline. If someone was interested enough to meet the Cardinals’ price, I think they’d move him out. I don’t know if they are actively shopping him, however.

Ryan Helsley—50%. Helsley is in a similar spot as Gallegos, save the injury wrinkle. It’s not impossible that Helsley returns before the deadline but it’s not a guarantee either. If he doesn’t, he stays put. He may anyway, though. I don’t think the club trades both Helsley and Gallegos, especially not if they move Hicks, and Helsley is the cheaper one depending on how arbitration goes. 50% may be a little high here but it may be reasonable if he gets a week’s worth of MLB time to prove he’s fine.

Dylan Carlson—45%. I can’t figure out what the club thinks about Carlson. While obviously he wasn’t the whole cost of the Soto deal, the club did make a point of letting him know before the deadline that he wasn’t going to be dealt. Now they seem to have trouble letting him play, starting Tommy Edman in center over him after lauding his center field skills in the past. Carlson is a young, cost-controlled, talented player and if the Cardinals are looking to get back something similar on the pitching side they may be willing to part with Carlson.

Genesis Cabrera—45%. I think the Cardinals would be fine parting with Cabrera, I’m just not sure that there is going to be anyone interested in gambling on him. Cabrera is a hard-throwing lefty that has shown flashes—all right, probably more than flashes—of being a really good reliever. He’s also pitched himself back to the minors and can’t find the strike zone at times. Mozeliak has said they aren’t just giving people away and I imagine they’ll do the calculus and determine they get more value out of keeping Cabrera.

Alec Burleson—40%. Much like Yepez up front, Burleson might get moved just so he can play regularly somewhere. Unlike Yepez, the front office seems to be pretty high on Burleson, regularly citing his underlying metrics. Burleson also seems like a solid fourth outfielder/first base/DH candidate and could get more playing time if some of the rest of the roster was cleared out. All of those qualities also might bring back a better return than some of the others on this list, though, which is a complicating factor.

Tommy Edman—40%. I’ve often said that I think Edman has more value to the Cardinals than he would to anyone else in the league and that’s probably still true. That said, as we discussed last night on the Meet Me at Musial roundtable, Edman’s versatility is nice but the bat isn’t any great shakes, plus he’s already getting into his arbitration years. Brendan Donovan can do pretty much anything Edman can do with a better overall profile and a cheaper salary. If some contender wanted a player who could fill in anywhere and be serviceable with the bat for their bench, they could do worse than checking in on Edman.

Brendan Donovan—20%. As mentioned, Donovan really is developing into a poor man’s Ben Zobrist, much like we’ve thought Edman would do. (Edman then got stuck at second and short instead of moving around.) Donovan would be a really attractive piece but he’s only in his second year with the club and they would probably need to be overwhelmed to move him. Could he be a piece in a really big deal for some really good pitching? Maybe, but I wouldn’t expect to see it happen.

Lars Nootbaar—20%. Nootbaar seems to have firmly ensconced himself in the outfield, at least when he stays healthy. While the outfield situation needs to be cleared up, it seems very unlikely moving Nootbaar is part of that project. Who knows, though, maybe someone wants to overpay to have Nootbaar on their roster before they make a major play for Shohei Ohtani.

Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tink Hence, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn—0%. These folks aren’t going anywhere. Arenado and Goldschmidt have no trade clauses that they don’t appear to want to waive and the Cardinals aren’t stripping things down. They are doing a garage sale, not a going out of business sale. Hence, Walker, and Winn are major pieces for the future. Mikolas just signed an extension and while there could be some interest in the trade market, somebody has to start for this team next year.

We’ll see how this all shakes out. I feel pretty confident we aren’t going to be sitting around until three hours before the deadline waiting for the Cardinals’ first move. There’s some benefit to holding on to a few players but some others they may want to trade to set the market. Seeing how the front office manages this rare situation is going to be a very intriguing part of the next couple of weeks.

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New Ahsoka trailer! I honestly thought Hera might be more of a cameo, someone just to be part of the first episode that sets up the story. Watching this makes me think she’ll be a bigger presence. I also can’t wait to find out what this backstory between Sabine and Ahsoka is and why Ahsoka was training a Mandalorian that, as far as we know, is not Force sensitive.