I dunno, man. I wouldn't have put the Cards' chance for a win as good as 50% tonight, and, if they did win, I would see Wainwright as no better than evens to get the W rather than one of the relievers. So less than a 25% shot of #200 tonight.
I'd agree that he's less likely to get the win in the other two starts- maybe a 20% chance in each. That rolls up to around a 50% chance of him not winning in any of the 3 (0.75 * 0.8 * 0.8, yes?), which feels about right?
Probably there's more serious statistical analysis on this somewhere...
Obviously I hope he does get #200, but I suspect it's pretty much a coin toss at this stage.
I spent a few minutes this morning looking at who might be next to 200 wins. Cole? I wonder how amazing (rare) a 200-game winner will be when you are my age?
The standards may be so strange by then that a guy like Blake Snell may be a HOF candidate. Am I correct that he has zero complete games? Baseball Reference may not need that category in what they call "Standard Pitching." Keep up the good work.
Cole would seem to be the most likely candidate and after that, yeah, it gets really sparse. Given the number of 300 winners when I was growing up, not having 200 is pretty surprising but an indicator to where the game is going with fewer pitchers staying out there longer than five innings.
I have tickets to Friday and Saturday's games in San Diego. It would be great to see Waino's 200th win!
I hope you do! Actually, I hope you see #201! :D
Me 2!
Looks like Waino won't be pitching out there. Hope you still have a good time though!
I dunno, man. I wouldn't have put the Cards' chance for a win as good as 50% tonight, and, if they did win, I would see Wainwright as no better than evens to get the W rather than one of the relievers. So less than a 25% shot of #200 tonight.
I'd agree that he's less likely to get the win in the other two starts- maybe a 20% chance in each. That rolls up to around a 50% chance of him not winning in any of the 3 (0.75 * 0.8 * 0.8, yes?), which feels about right?
Probably there's more serious statistical analysis on this somewhere...
Obviously I hope he does get #200, but I suspect it's pretty much a coin toss at this stage.
I will admit I am a terrible oddsmaker.
As apparently am I, given how Waino pitched last night!
I spent a few minutes this morning looking at who might be next to 200 wins. Cole? I wonder how amazing (rare) a 200-game winner will be when you are my age?
The standards may be so strange by then that a guy like Blake Snell may be a HOF candidate. Am I correct that he has zero complete games? Baseball Reference may not need that category in what they call "Standard Pitching." Keep up the good work.
Cole would seem to be the most likely candidate and after that, yeah, it gets really sparse. Given the number of 300 winners when I was growing up, not having 200 is pretty surprising but an indicator to where the game is going with fewer pitchers staying out there longer than five innings.