9 Comments

I spent a few minutes this morning looking at who might be next to 200 wins. Cole? I wonder how amazing (rare) a 200-game winner will be when you are my age?

The standards may be so strange by then that a guy like Blake Snell may be a HOF candidate. Am I correct that he has zero complete games? Baseball Reference may not need that category in what they call "Standard Pitching." Keep up the good work.

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Cole would seem to be the most likely candidate and after that, yeah, it gets really sparse. Given the number of 300 winners when I was growing up, not having 200 is pretty surprising but an indicator to where the game is going with fewer pitchers staying out there longer than five innings.

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I dunno, man. I wouldn't have put the Cards' chance for a win as good as 50% tonight, and, if they did win, I would see Wainwright as no better than evens to get the W rather than one of the relievers. So less than a 25% shot of #200 tonight.

I'd agree that he's less likely to get the win in the other two starts- maybe a 20% chance in each. That rolls up to around a 50% chance of him not winning in any of the 3 (0.75 * 0.8 * 0.8, yes?), which feels about right?

Probably there's more serious statistical analysis on this somewhere...

Obviously I hope he does get #200, but I suspect it's pretty much a coin toss at this stage.

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I will admit I am a terrible oddsmaker.

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As apparently am I, given how Waino pitched last night!

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I have tickets to Friday and Saturday's games in San Diego. It would be great to see Waino's 200th win!

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I hope you do! Actually, I hope you see #201! :D

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Me 2!

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Looks like Waino won't be pitching out there. Hope you still have a good time though!

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