The Quest For 200

Adam Wainwright has three more chances. What are the odds that he picks up the milestone?

Perhaps it is appropriate that Adam Wainwright’s side career is being a country music artist. The trip to 200 wins has been full of heartbreak and disappointment. While the final verse may bring us a happy resolution, this was not the way anyone wrote it up.

Going into the season, 200 seemed to be a lock. Wainwright needed just five more wins and even though September had been rocky, five wins seemed well in hand and it was when, not if, the Cardinal legend would get to that level. Even a rocky couple of appearances in the World Baseball Classic didn’t completely take the shine off of that prediction. It was going to happen.

The first setback was coming out of the WBC as Wainwright injured himself lifting weights before the final game and started the season on the injured list. He started out with two four run/five innings games that got him no-decisions before winning two straight games with significant help from the offense. In both games he allowed five runs (though in the first only two were earned) and went 5.2 innings, but the offense scored 16 and 8 and Uncle Charlie had just three more to go.

Two more no-decisions followed, then win 198 was more of a Wainwright special, as he won his final game in New York with three runs in 6.1 innings in mid-June. A quality start, a level he wouldn’t see again until he met the Mets again in August.

The wheels completely fell off the next three games, with Waino putting up an ERA just shy of twenty—yes, 20—over them. Another trip to the injured list around the All-Star Break gave hope that he would be rested and could come up with those two pesky wins.

He might have grabbed 199 in his first game back from the IL, allowing just two runs in five, but the offense didn’t show up until too late in the win over Arizona. Four runs in six against the Cubs might have been a winning possibility but the offense managed just one run. If it wasn’t one thing, it was another for the Cardinal legend.

He put up five straight losses in August and showed versatility in the process. The first two were blowouts, with Waino going only an inning plus in one of them and allowing eight runs. He sandwiched another rough outing in between two quality starts that should have been enough for this offense, including allowing just one run in six innings to the Padres.

The homecoming in Atlanta wasn’t sweet but he finally got 199 last time out with not only solid pitching but timely offense. Which brings us to the last three games. Can he get one win out of them?

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Let’s take tonight’s game first. Wainwright faces a Milwaukee Brewers team that is leading the division and trying to hold off the Cubs over the last two weeks. They aren’t in the spot where they can ease up and rest players but if you look at their lineup, you’d be forgiven if you thought that’s what they were doing.

Milwaukee ranks 26th in OPS. They are tied for 24th in home runs. They are 13th in strikeouts and they are hitting .238 as a team. On paper, this is the sort of club you want Adam Wainwright to be facing.

In his career, Waino is 21-14 against the Brewers with a 2.74 ERA. He’s only beaten the Pittsburgh Pirates more often and among teams he’s started against at least five times, that ERA ranks fourth. He has not faced the Brewers this season but last year he went 1-2 with a 4.18 ERA in five starts, so perhaps some of the magic has faded.

The drawback this evening might be getting enough support to win. Freddy Peralta has a 2.55 ERA in the month of September and is allowing a batting average against of .129. The Cards did see him back in May and put six runs on him in 5.1 innings, but he limited them to one run in six back in April. St. Louis has roughed him up in his career, though.

Put it all together and I think you give Waino a 50/50 shot at winning tonight and making the rest of the season a celebration of his career.

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What if he doesn’t, though? What if he lays an egg or the offense doesn’t show up or the bullpen blows it?

His next chance would be Saturday against the Padres in San Diego, possibly against his former apprentice Michael Wacha (though unlikely given the Padres have an off day on Thursday). As noted above, Wainwright was able to hold down that vaunted San Diego offense to one run when they came to Busch, but that does mean his approach will be fresh in their minds.

The Padres are out of things, though, and that might affect how they approach the game. If he was going on Sunday afternoon, it’d be more likely that names like Juan Soto or Manny Machado would get a breather. Saturday night he’ll probably see the regular lineup. Of course, that lineup might be stronger in reputation than in actuality, as they sit 14th in OPS and 13th in home runs.

Petco Park has a reputation of helping out the pitchers but it’s not done much for Wainwright, who has a 4.54 ERA there. Perhaps the most recent memory of Waino on the Petco mound is May 13, 2018, when he left the mound with the bases loaded after 2.1 innings having walked six and allowed one run (another would score when John Gant allowed a sacrifice fly). It looked like Wainwright’s career might have ended there. Instead, he got a second lease on life.

Even though the Padres are an enigma, you probably favor them in this matchup. I’d give Wainwright about a 30/70 chance of getting 200 here if he still needed it.

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Baseball gives you three strikes. If Uncle Charlie whiffs on one with the Brewers and two on the Padres, he’s got another chance with the Reds on the last Friday night of the season.

Thankfully it’s in Busch, not the “devil’s lair” of Great American Ball Park. Adam Wainwright has a 11-17 record against the Reds with a 5.51 ERA in his career, and honestly it’s not that he’s been great against them anywhere. He’s 8-8 with a 5.83 ERA at Great American, which means he’s 3-9 opposing them in Busch. It’s so bad that the Cards juggled the rotation recently, in part to let Adam start in Atlanta one more time but in part to make sure he missed GABP.

He got his second win of the season against the Reds in May but he still allowed five runs in 5.2 innings as noted above. In June, he got a no-decision in Cincinnati, allowing three runs in, again, 5.2 innings.

The Reds are 15th in OPS but it’s a lineup of young players that haven’t seen Wainwright much and vice versa. (Then there’s Joey Votto, who has faced Wainwright more than any other pitcher and is hitting .318 with five homers against him in 66 AB.)

This is the kickoff to Adam Wainwright weekend. He has a post-game concert on Saturday and a ceremony on Sunday to end his career. If you are scripting it, you’d have him win 200 here as part of the whole celebration. However, if it comes down to this game, I think best you can do is hope for Wainwright to give it all he has and it’s still a 40/60 Reds edge.

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Depending on what Wainwright shows up, if the bats support him, and the bullpen does their job, our legend has three legitimate chances at win 200. I think he gets it and hopefully that’s tonight.

This week on Meet Me at Musial, besides the normal talk you get with Allen and myself, there’s also details about how you can win a really cool baseball cap with a Cardinal design.

You can find out more about it over here at Official League. They sent me one and I’ve been wearing it for the last few days. It’s a really nice cap that’s a little different than your standard baseball fare.

At the front of the episode I tell you how you can enter to win one of these for your very own. I’ll give an extra chance if you can send a screenshot or some proof that you are subscribed to this Substack as well. The entries are likely to be limited so you have a great chance of picking this up for your collection!