Sorting It All Out

A few roster moves means another look at the 26-man

It’s not been that long ago that we took our first pass at trying to figure out what the 26-man roster would look like. The Cardinals have been busy over the last couple of weeks, though, and while most of the roster isn’t that different, I wanted to take a look at the bullpen in particular. So let’s run down the roster quickly and then take a look at those arms that won’t be starting but will be making an impact.

Catchers (2): Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera
Infielders (6): Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Brendan Donovan, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn
Outfielders (5): Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker

The only change from last time in the hitters is the addition of Matt Carpenter. We all know that even if he goes 0-15 in the spring he’s making this roster, at least for a while, so we’ve got to find some room for him. It’s possible that Alec Burleson would be the odd man out but I think it’s more likely they figure Tommy Edman can cover short and maybe Brendan Donovan could for a couple of innings if necessary and it bumps Jose Fermin to Memphis.

Starting pitchers (5): Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas.

Even though Ben Fredrickson continues to advocate for another starting pitcher, someone like Jordan Montgomery, we’ve still got the same five guys going to take the hill. Which isn’t going to change this year barring injury, which you typically want to bar if at all possible.

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Now we come to the bullpen. Let’s take a look at all the names that are on the 40-man that could be in this mix.

• Ryan Fernandez

• Giovanny Gallegos

• Ryan Helsley

• Josh King

• Andrew Kittredge

• Adam Kloffenstein

• Matthew Liberatore

• Keynan Middleton*

• Riley O’Brien

• Andre Pallante

• Sem Robberse

• Nick Robertson

• Drew Rom

• JoJo Romero

• Zack Thompson

• Guillermo Zuniga

Middleton is not officially signed yet, at least not as of this writing. There’s still the physical to pass (which is not exactly a formality with his history) and we don’t know who will come off the 40-man roster to make room for him. There’s a pretty decent chance that one of these names will be put on waivers, though it’s also fairly likely that, like Moises Gomez when the club picked up Alfonso Rivas, they’ll wind up staying in the organization. I’m kinda guessing Buddy Kennedy might get the boot, but with all these names it’s possible the Cards will gamble that someone like Zuniga could slide through.

The 40-man conundrum is also why I don’t have people like Gordon Graceffo, Wilking Rodriguez, Victor Santos, Michael McGreevy, or Ian Bedell listed above. You also have Josh James, who just signed a minor league deal. Sure, any of them could come in and make a case in the spring, forcing the Cards into a move. Or there could be one of those springtime injuries that requires a 60-man stint, freeing up a spot. Right now, though, there are enough arms in the mix we don’t have to go out of our way to add to the pool.

Out of the names above you probably have a lot of the Memphis rotation. Kloffenstein, Robberse, Thompson, and Liberatore could all in it, though you also have Graceffo and McGreevy. Given that, the club might lean to having Liberatore be a reliever, either in St. Louis or Memphis. The try out that he had in that role at the end of last season seemed to go well and there’s a better-than-even chance that’s how he’ll make his living in the big leagues.

So take all those names out. You are still looking at 11-12 names in the mix. Drew Rom probably shouldn’t count, though John Mozeliak has mentioned him a few times this winter. He’s another one that could be starting in Memphis or in a bullpen role there, but it was pretty clear he needed some more seasoning when he got pressed into service last year.

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It’s remarkable just how the Cardinals have gone about picking up bullpen pieces this winter. You’ve got a Rule 5 guy in Fernandez, a minor league invite guy in James, trade returns for outfielders in Kittredge and Robertson, a minor league trade/purchase with O’Brien, and now a major league signing in Middleton. Given the history of the club and acquiring relievers on the free agent market, this approach seems to be much more the way to go. We don’t know the financial terms on Middleton yet but the most expensive arm out there will be Gallegos, who is making $5.5 million this season. (EDIT: Actually, it’s Middleton, who will make $6 million this year and has an option for $5 million in ‘25.) Kittredge and Helsley, who will likely be your highest leverage arms, are making just a little over that combined. So you’ve got (in theory) the seventh, eighth, and ninth covered for significantly less than what Josh Hader will be making in the ninth inning for the Astros. The costs only decrease from there on.

What you want out of this bullpen is 1) strikeouts and 2) flexibility. The Cardinals have been pretty good about picking up folks that have swing-and-miss, but how flexible are they going to be?

Let’s note the locks. Middleton, Kittredge, Gallegos, and Helsley are going to be in there and even though Helsley technically has options, none of them will be able to be moved around. Romero is also out of options, which could be tricky if he’s not as dominant as we saw at the end of ‘23, but he’s going to be there to at least start the bell. There’s five of your eight locked down.

Right now, Fernandez is also locked in because he’s a Rule 5 guy. Now, the Cards got him before they got many of the other arms, so it could be that they’ll wind up offering him back to the Red Sox or working out some sort of deal that allows them to send him to Memphis by trading for his full rights. Without those, though, he’s going to be on the roster all season.

Both Andre Pallante and John King have an option year (Pallante has two) and it wouldn’t surprise me if at least King winds up bouncing back and forth between St. Louis and Memphis some this season. That said, they’d have to rely on reverse splits for Pallante and Middleton if King goes down because that would leave Romero the only lefty in the pen.

So right now, it seems pretty clear:

Bullpen (8): Ryan Fernandez, Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, John King, Andrew Kittredge, Keynan Middleton, Andre Pallante, JoJo Romero

That said, spring training likely will play a role in the last couple of spots here and I look forward to see how people are used and what the results are when games start down in Florida.

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Good conversation last night with Ben Clemens of Fangraphs over at Meet Me at Musial. Check it out if you are so inclined and find out why he probably won’t be joining us over here on Substack.

I just finished a rewatch of Elementary, the modern day Sherlock Holmes series that was on CBS a few years ago. I saw rewatch but I had never seen the final season, so that was fun to finally put a bow on. I know at the time everyone loved the BBC’s Sherlock with Benedict Cumberbatch and those were good for what they were, but I think Elementary had a better grasp of Holmes while updating him for the current time.

I’ve gotten started on Eric Vickrey’s book Runnin’ Redbirds, telling the story of the 1982 champions. As someone that wasn’t following baseball intently then, given that I turned seven that summer, I’m finding it quite interesting. Vickrey laid the groundwork for the team by looking at the preceding years and the trades and other moves that brought the team together and now is looking at the season game-by-game. It’s an enjoyable read, even if you are more fluent in that ‘82 team than I am.

So as I wrote a while back, I got a new Chromebook for Christmas, which has really been nice. The ability to sit out in the den with the family while still picking away at posts or surfing the web has been great. I’ve also decorated it a bit with some stickers, one of which is relevant to this site.