The First Guess at the 2024 Roster

It's early and the Opening Day roster doesn't really mean much. It's content, though.

Over at The Athletic, the excellent Reds writer C. Trent Rosecrans every year writes a series of posts through the spring that continues to make projections on what the 26-man Opening Day roster is going to look like for Cincinnati. Since he put his first guess for 2024 out earlier today, it got me thinking about the roster for St. Louis.

There’s not a lot of drama in the Cardinals roster, I don’t think, but after a winter of churn, it seemed like a decent enough time to start getting a better grasp of what things look like for the Cards. Again, I don’t imagine that this is any sort of surprise to anyone but sometimes I like to write posts just to organize my thinking and, if it helps anyone else, so much the better.

So let’s break it down, shall we?

The Offense

Catcher (2): Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera

There’s not really any debate on the offensive side of things but this might be the slam dunk of slam dunks. The question isn’t going to be who are the catchers on the roster but how they are going to be used. Will Contreras try to catch 120 games? If he doesn’t, are we already shifting him off the position and how does that impact the DH usage? What happens if Herrera isn’t ready? What happens if he’s more than ready? It’s a locked down position that’s going to have a lot of intrigue around it.

Infield (5): Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Jose Fermin, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn

You’ve got the recent MVP candidates on the corners, a young power hitter who is hopefully over his back issues, a utility player that is taking on a leadership role, a young prospect starting his first full season, and Jose Fermin who doesn’t really fit into this whole thing.

Honestly, I’m taking Fermin here because there’s an extra hitting spot available and, if Tommy Edman does settle into center field, that gives another option behind Winn that is more of a true shortstop. If he’s playing a lot we have other issues but I could see him breaking camp as the last bat and shortstop insurance.

Other than that, though, the infield is exciting. We’ll have to see if Arenado and Goldy can rebound from a difficult 2023, especially Goldschmidt who is farther down the age spectrum. You know I’m a huge believer in Masyn Winn and I truly believe he’ll be in the top three of Rookie of the Year voting at the very least.

Outfield (5): Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker

Burleson will probably see more DH/PH plate appearances than outfield ones, but he’ll get out there occasionally, especially if he really has been working on his defense. He won’t be out there at the same time as Walker (we hope) but he’ll probably see a little time.

I’m still not really sold on Edman as an outfielder. Yes, I know, he played the position well but given his bat I’d really like to see Carlson get more of a chance to claim center. If he has a strong spring, I’d start him over Edman but I’m not sure the Cards will. Then again, strong springs do have a way of being a problem, as Mr. Motter will attest.

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The Pitching

Rotation (5): Kyle Gibson, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas

It is what it is, I guess, and what it is should be better than what it was in 2023. That said, going into spring we thought Jordan Montgomery would be great (pretty accurate), Miles Mikolas would be a solid second, Jack Flaherty would at least be a bit over league average, Adam Wainwright might be right around average, and Steven Matz…could always go to the bullpen if necessary.

Obviously, it didn’t turn out that way. The weaknesses of the rotation became gaping holes. I don’t think this rotation will do the same but we have to acknowledge there’s a chance. Gibson, Lynn, Matz, and Mikolas could all pitch like fifth starters. We said when the winter began that they needed to get at least two, hopefully three pitchers better than Mikolas. They got one. We’ll see if it’s enough.

Bullpen (8): Ryan Fernandez, Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, John King, Andrew Kittredge, Riley O’Brien, Andre Pallante, JoJo Romero

The media and the front office continue to talk about adding to the bullpen but currently there’s already not room for the arms that they have. Fernandez is the Rule 5 pick and until he shows that he can’t cut it you have to pencil him into the roster. Gallegos, Helsley, Kittredge, and Romero are locks to start the season in the bigs, even if Romero could wind up with another trip to Memphis at some point if last year’s gains don’t translate.

King does have some options, as does Pallante. That being said, Pallante has barely been in Memphis and I imagine that they’ll at least start him with the big club. King pitched well enough after the trade from Texas last year that I would say he has a leg up on some of the other competition. That said, he could be beaten out by some of the folks that aren’t on this list in the spring.

I went with O’Brien with my last spot though I think there’s a strong case to be made for Nick Robertson as well. O’Brien brings a little more swing and miss, I think, and if he can continue what he did for Seattle last year, he’ll have a lot of rope come February and March.

On the outside looking in is Robertson, Matthew Liberatore (and what they do with him should be fascinating—does he go to Memphis as a starter or a reliever), Zack Thompson (who should be starting in Memphis as insurance), James Naile, Wilking Rodriguez (who isn’t on the 40-man and would have to have a resounding spring or have injuries in front of him to get placed back on it), and Guillermo Zuniga. That’s a lot of decent depth and it doesn’t include people like Adam Kloffenstein, Drew Rom, and Sem Robberse, who will probably also be starting in Memphis but could make their presence known in the St. Louis pen at some point.

If a bullpen piece is acquired (and I’d think it’s more like a John Brebbia type if they actually do anything and I’m only 50/50 that they actually do) then you push everyone after the top four back. O’Brien probably starts in the Memphis bullpen and there’s a whole lot of folks that weren’t in the organization a year ago that are walking ten feet off of Beale in April.

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If you disagree with this, feel free to leave your changes in the comments. I don’t profess to have it all figured out but this is the way the roster looks to me here 3 1/2 weeks before pitchers and catchers report.

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