The Wainwright Decision

The pros and cons as Uncle Charlie decides on 2023

Adam Wainwright has a decision to make, assuming he hasn’t already made it. Does he retire to the life of a dad or does he give it another go for 2023?

If it were me, it’d be obvious. I’m a sucker for romantic endings, those moments that just feel right. Even if Albert Pujols hadn’t come back, the lure of walking off the field with my brother Yadier Molina would have been too tough to overcome. Of course, I’d have also announced my retirement when Yadi did so obviously Waino is a bit different than I am. (I know, I know, you always confused us.)

So let’s walk through some of the ideas that Wainwright might be weighing as he figures out his future.

Stay: Adam Wainwright was well above replacement level this year, whether you look at bWAR (1.8) or fWAR (2.8). He reached September with a 3.09 ERA and a 3.54 FIP. He was still an effective part of the rotation and could be reasonably expected to have success again next year. As long as that curveball still works, and most of the advanced stats seem to show that it does, Wainwright could pitch forever.

Go: September was rough (7.22 ERA) and he didn’t get a chance to pitch in October for the first time ever when he’s been healthy and the club has made the playoffs. The narrative of a “dead arm” and not having the feel for his pitches might be the case and he might be better after rest. He might not be, however, and the only thing Wainwright might like less than not competing is not being successful when he is competing.

Go: Along those lines, if Wainwright comes back there’s no guarantee he could put up a season as nice as the last two that he has done. Age is undefeated and at some point things are going to get ugly. Do you want to reach the edge of your abilities—and have the batters regularly telling you that—or do you want to leave on a high note even if there’s a little left on the table?

Stay: Wainwright is one of the ultimate competitors, a bulldog in the vein of Chris Carpenter even if he goes about it a bit differently (and with less vulgarities). Walking away when he feels like he still has something in the tank might be impossible for him.

Stay: There might be a bit of a draw of being the legend in the clubhouse. Over the past few years, it’s always been him and Yadi, which I’m sure was a lot of fun, and nobody was complaining about adding Pujols in for 2022. However, Wainwright might like to be the sole leader for a bit, a chance to lead without assistance.

Stay: To go along with that, some of Wainwright’s success has always been tied to Molina. If he could have a good season, especially at his age, with Andrew Knizner or another catcher, it might enhance his Hall of Fame credentials. It’s not like anyone thinks Wainwright was only good because he had Yadi, but when you look at the splits, it’s fair to ask how much better he was because of that connection. Doing it with another catcher would be a strong statement.

Go: If Wainwright makes 30 starts next year—which is not out of the realm of possibility—and does so all with the same catcher, that catcher immediately jumps to second on Waino’s all time list. (Knizner only needs 15 to go from fourth to second.) At age 41-42, do you really want to start from scratch? Do you really want to have to think about things harder instead of having that natural easy rhythm? Do you want to try to learn what works, what doesn’t with a new guy?

Stay: Unlike Han Solo, I don’t think Wainwright’s in this for the money. He’s already made plenty in his career and he’s said that his goal is to bounce his last check because that means he’s given away all of it. Wainwright’s charity work is important and it needs funding. Any money he can make next year is just more money he can put into fixing some real problems.

Go: That charity work is important and Wainwright has shown that he likes to be hands on with a lot of it. Freeing up six months to travel to places where he’s helping provide clean water, to be more involved with local mission work, to maybe fundraise a bit and spread the message, has to be at least somewhat intriguing.

Go: Wainwright’s got five kids, the oldest of which turned sixteen last month it seems. There’s just a couple of more years before the nest starts to empty. Their adopted son will be turning four in the early part of 2023. That’s right before kindergarten and t-ball. While I know that Waino is involved with his family as much as he can be, the demands of baseball cut into that severely. There’s probably quite the pull to be present in some moments that he’s missed before. Plus it sounds like they can’t get a dog until he retires and depriving kids of a dog is just wrong.

Go: Uncle Charlie has the healthy ego that most professional athletes have. You can’t play the game and not think that you are better than the other guy, that you aren’t worthy of being there, things like that. However, I don’t think he’s going to be one that wants the farewell tour. Molina and Pujols didn’t announce their retirement at the beginning of the year so they could rack up the gifts and the praise, but that was always going to be a byproduct. Wainwright could easily just slip away into retirement without a lot of hullabaloo.

Go: The rotation is starting to look a little cramped for next year. Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, and Steven Matz are already locks for four spots, assuming no injuries in the offseason. The club might want to bring Jose Quintana back and they are still on board the Dakota Hudson train as well (for some reason). That doesn’t count other options like Jake Woodford or Andre Pallante or any free agent they may pick up. If Wainwright came back, he’d have a spot, but it might be at the back of the rotation and it might be tenuous.

Go: Leaving the field for the last time with Yadier Molina on one side and Albert Pujols on the other is a moment that would be impossible to top without leaving as a World Series champion.

I’ve been pretty consistent all year long saying that I believe Wainwright will hang them up. He’s not likely to go into the baseball Hall of Fame with Molina, given that Wainwright’s case might need a veteran’s committee or at least more ballots than Yadi does, but he would be eligible for the Cards HOF at the same time as his battery mate if he is done. I think there’s enough on the go side of things that he stays home for 2023.

I won’t be surprised, though, if the pull of playing is too strong and he gives it another year as well. He also probably won’t say it’s his last, so we could be having this same discussion this time next year!

EDIT: After posting, Waino put up this tweet thread explaining what happened at the end of the year, not a dead arm but a flawed delivery. Which has the real feel of a guy that’s coming back.