The Spring of Our Discontent

This was not how the 2023 season was supposed to go.

This morning was the first time that I can remember waking up to a Cardinal loss when I went to bed sure of a Cardinal win.

A combination of factors played into that, of course. Usually anything but a West Coast game I know the results to before I go to bed. (I’m not quite old enough to be asleep before 9:30….most nights.) There’s been a lot of West Coast games that have hung in the balance when I’ve called it a night, so I’ve not been completely surprised by a result the next morning. Last night, though, I went to bed right after the Cards had scored two in the ninth. With Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley coming in, I felt pretty confident that the Redbirds had a nice rally victory in their pocket.

I wasn’t counting on 2023.

Waking up to a 5-4 loss was shocking but in hindsight it shouldn’t have been. The Cardinals seem to be having a Murphy’s Law season and the closer blowing a needed game by giving up three runs in the ninth, two on his first ever walk-off homer, just seems par for the course.

The old saying is that you can’t win a pennant (or a division) in April. The corollary, from what I’ve heard, is that you can sure lose one. The Cards are now 9-15, tied with the Reds for last and seven games out of first. The division isn’t necessarily lost, but if they don’t win it, it’s likely this month that did them in.

I believe it was Dayn Perry, in one of his Substack notes or posts, who recently noted that while if you have a 2/3rds chance to win something, you should load up your bet, 1/3 of the time it’s going to bust on you. Even once-in-a-million events happen once. The fact that the Cardinals haven’t had a losing season since 2007 is a wonderful thing but there’s no guarantee that it’s going to continue, even with the best of intentions.

The 1997 Cardinals went 9-14, but they won their 24th game on a walkoff against the Giants (well, that’s kinda weird, huh?). The 1988 team was 9-14, but won their 24th game in San Francisco against the Giants. (Perhaps the next time the Giants are around game 24 on the schedule, we should be concerned even before the season starts.) The 1986 team started 9-14 but won Game 24 (this time it was against San Diego.) The 1975 team, same thing, won their 10th in Game 24 against the Giants. This is the worst start to a season since 1973, when the Cardinals were 5-19 at this point. (Somehow, that ‘73 team did finish at .500 though.) Part of the reason that the fanbase is so worked up is that most of them have never had a start to a season like this in their lifetimes. (Except for johnrabe, who was good friends with Abner Doubleday.)

Now, it should be noted that the 1985 team was 11-14 in this spot and went on to win 101 games, so nothing is impossible. The fact that the Pittsburgh Pirates are currently leading the division does make it feel like the season isn’t over yet. Not to slight the Pirates, who may well be a serious contender after all, but they lost 100 games last year and didn’t make significant improvements in the offseason. Andrew McCutchen is fine and dandy, but it’s not unreasonable to have them slip down as the season wears on. The problem is, will the Cardinals be able to take advantage?

While the pitching takes the brunt of things, it’s fair to note that even when there have been good starts, the offense hasn’t completely taken advantage. While I love Nolan Arenado and appreciate his dedication to always getting better, perhaps he should have left last year’s near-MVP swing alone.

Did you ever think you’d see so much blue on Arenado’s Baseball Savant page? He’s walking less, striking out more, and not hitting the ball as hard. At some point things will likely click but there have been games where a double or a homer from Nolan at the right time could have made a huge difference.

It feels like an in-tune Arenado might just be the thing that unleashes this offense. Most everyone else is doing pretty well, depending on what the outfield alignment is, but it just needs some consistency from the main men. Paul Goldschmidt is doing his part, but he needs his partner in crime for things to be firing on all cylinders.

Things will get better, of course. A six-game winning streak would bring them back to .500, though that might be asking a little much. Maybe going 15-9 over the next stretch isn’t, though.

Maybe it is. Adam Wainwright made his rehab start last night and it’s possible that he’ll be in the rotation in five days. Unfortunately, the descriptions and accounts of that game indicated middling velocity and some very hard-hit balls. If Wainwright is more like September Waino than the rest of 2022 Waino, not only do things not get better, it becomes even harder to upgrade the rotation.

We’re five days from the end of the first month of baseball. Something has to give very soon or the hole dug might be unfillable.