The First Third
Spring training is basically a third complete. What do we know?
The Cardinals won two games today, bringing their spring record to 5-6. They have 20 more games remaining, if you don’t count the prospect game between them and the Marlins but if you do count their stop in Memphis as they end the exhibition season. Which means, if you aren’t up on your higher math, that we are just at the third pole (quarter pole sounds better, but we waited too long to write and that’s in the rear-view mirror). With 11 games under our collective belt, what have we learned?
It’s hard to say we’ve learned much, isn’t it? For one thing, as we always hammer this time of year, spring training stats mean almost nothing. They are the gold standard of small sample sizes, posted against players that, shall we say, aren’t always laser focused on the final score or that are getting the closest approximation of the big leagues that they will ever get. Players are tinkering, working on things, facing fluctuating talent. When Shakespeare wrote “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing”, he was pretty much talking about the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues.
Still, it’s hard not to get a little intrigued by a few things.
First off, the Cardinals are not stringing along their biggest prospects. Chase Davis, Cooper Hjerpe, Quinn Matthews are all already out of big league camp. You have to figure Tink Hence won’t be too far behind. These aren’t surprising moves—well, I was a little surprised that Davis went down so quickly—in large part because there aren’t any real roster slots open this year. There was really no chance of a Matthews spring pushing him to St. Louis so might as well start freeing up innings for people that decisions need to be made on.
Hence and Tekoah Roby are still in camp. Roby has actually gotten five innings of work, which puts him tied for second behind camp leader Matthew Liberatore. Again, he’ll probably go in a day or so when the next cuts are made. In the past, we’d think that the club might shift him to the bullpen and maybe get him to St. Louis quickly. That would seem to go against the current developmental model, but I guess you can’t rule it completely out. Still, it’s more about seeing where he’ll start, either back in Springfield or whether they gamble and send him to Memphis. My bet would be Springfield since there’s less pressure to help the big league team.
Offensively, Thomas Saggese is still around but I would expect him to be one of the last cuts. There’s still a path where he could be in St. Louis on Opening Day, though I think it’s limited and perhaps reliant on an injury, but it’s strong enough to keep him around. I wouldn’t be surprised if he and Victor Scott II don’t get officially sent down until after the game in Memphis.
Speaking of VSII, he’s been one of the great stories of camp so far. He’s leading the team in hits, the only player to have a cycle when you look at the overall stats, and he’s hitting the ball very hard. If it was just between him and Michael Siani, I’d say he was doing a great job of locking down center field.
However, there are two things. One, he impressed last year in spring (albeit in a different manner, I think) and wasn’t ready for prime time. Two, it’s not just between him and Siani. We’ve seen Lars Nootbaar getting time in center this year because that’s where he’ll probably get a lot of time, assuming the configuration that we’ve talked about regularly this winter and spring, especially after Nolan Arenado stayed put.
I’ve said that even if Scott hit .800 this spring, he should go back to Memphis if they don’t plan for him to play most every day. Could there be a rotation that has him in center? Perhaps, I guess, if they are willing to keep Brendan Donovan bouncing around and giving more off days to Arenado, Nolan Gorman, etc. It would be a very tough needle to thread for Oli Marmol but it might be a possibility. That said, Marmol has indicated he’d rather not bounce people around for the sake of at bats, so it feels like that is less likely to happen, which again would seem to have Scott in the land of the delta blues.
The other standout this spring has to be Matthew Liberatore. As noted above, he leads the camp with seven innings and still hasn’t given up a hit. Take all the caveats from above and throw in the wrinkle that he’s only struck out four in those seven innings, which ties him for sixth on the staff, but it’s still a great thing to see.
He’s also in a pretty interesting battle with Michael McGreevy. McGreevy also has a zero ERA on the spring (five innings, with three K). Both of the young guys are pitching well in the early going and it’s going to be interesting to see how the rest of the spring goes for them. Will they continue to get starts as the rotation starts going deeper into games and things get more like the regular season? What happens when Sonny Gray makes his first start and gets into the regular cycle of starters?
There’s a lot that can happen in three weeks, especially when you have the injury history of some of the arms on the staff. If the Veteran Five make up the rotation, though, I’d guess Liberatore starts in the bullpen (where we saw him succeed last year) while McGreevy gets a little more time in Memphis.
What else have we seen? We’ve seen Arenado look pretty good, even if the overall numbers aren’t great. We’ve seen Gorman and now Masyn Winn finally break their long hitless streaks (one of those guys created a whole lot less stress than the other, but I’ll let you figure out who is who).
What we haven’t seen is a lot of games, though both of today’s games were televised. I am very surprised that at least not all the weekend games are on the TV. I know that it’s a costly endeavor but I also remember just a few years ago when it seemed like 75% of the games were on somebody’s TV feed. It feels like the pandemic, along with all the chaos of the Diamond Sports situation, put an end to that sort of coverage.
It’s a small thing overall, especially since many of these games are happening when at least some of us are working and can’t really watch anyway, but it would be nice to be able to see highlights instead of just relying on what the stories and Twitter are saying about it.
I don’t think I’ve seen anything yet that makes we want to revisit my roster predictions of a while back. Maybe around the halfway point we’ll see how it stands up but for right now, even my longshot of Matt Koperniak doesn’t seem that crazy. If they continue to play VSII regularly, though, that might be something to take into account.
For the first time, I have joined a book club. It will not surprise you to learn that said book club is Star Wars based. We have gone through the original Thrawn trilogy, which is a must for anyone even if it is not part of the current canon. Enough parts have come into the timeline through Rebels and Ahsoka that it is worth revisiting, especially if (as rumored) Dave Filoni’s Star Wars movie will be some sort of adaptation. We are currently on The Truce at Bakura, which I remember being pretty weird. I haven’t revisited that one much since it came out 30-plus years ago.
Also on my current reading list is Interstate ‘85 by Marshall Garvey, which focuses on the 1985 World Series. It’s been an interesting read so far and the case that 1985 is one of the greatest years when you factor in sports and pop culture and everything is a thought-provoking statement. Marshall will be on Musial in a couple of weeks to talk more about the book.
On the Kindle, I’m enjoying The Mask of Fear, the first in a trilogy of books set in the early days of the Empire and focusing on Mon Mothma, Bail Organa, and Saw Gerrera. I’m also about halfway through Joe Posnanski’s Why We Love Baseball, close to halfway through The High Country, a Star Trek: Strange New Worlds novel, and I’ve started Jefferson: Architect of American Liberty by John Boles as I continue working my way through the early days of America.
The podcasts continue to roll along as well. David and I are putting out Gateway to Baseball Heaven about every Sunday while the guests continue to flow over at Musial. Lynn Worthy wrapped up the local media portion of our guest list in a fun conversation, then Jason Hill and Ben Cerutti did the alumni portion, since neither of those guys is writing/podcasting baseball much these days. The new host of the Viva El Birdos podcast, Jake Wood, joins me this week with Dayn Perry taking some swings in the on-deck circle.
Ash Wednesday is tomorrow. I’ve always thought Lent was like the Christian spring training (or spring training the baseball Lent) given its time in the calendar and the focus on training, preparing, and being ready for not only the big day (Opening Day or Easter) but all the days after it. I hope that, even if it isn’t part of your faith tradition, you find a service tomorrow to reflect on the sinfulness of man and the glorious hope of our salvation.
Hmm...Will be interested in your thoughts on Interstate 85 and the Jefferson book..