Roster Machinations 1.0

It's not exactly rocket science at its most complicated and this year....is not complicated.

About this time last year, I took my first crack at figuring out what the Opening Day roster for the St. Louis Cardinals might look like. After all, John Mozeliak had been busy with new additions, especially in the bullpen, and while most of the selections were pretty obvious, there was just enough to make it worth speculating.

This year….less so. The winter has been colder than nighttime on Hoth, the stove more frozen than St. Louis’s roads in January. The biggest story is what hasn’t happened, as Nolan Arenado is still here. Still, it’s worth at least looking at the framework, if only because when I write a post, events tend to make it look stupid. (Yeah, events, that’s the ticket.)

Let’s then dive in. I feel like it’s pretty safe to use the 40-man roster the Cardinals have now when constructing this team. Could you see someone like Quinn Matthews push his way into the conversation in Jupiter? It’s not out of the realm of possibility. However, my guess is the 26 will be coming out of these 40. So let’s break it down.

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Catcher (2): Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages

It’s a little strange not putting Willson Contreras’s name here, isn’t it? When John Mozeliak asked about moving Contreras, I don’t think he meant positions. However, his shift 90 feet down the baseline gives the Cardinals a chance to truly look at catching prospects, something that they haven’t been able to do since 2004.

It truly feels like the club is going to do that thing that they always do, get enamored with an upstart, less talented player at the detriment of someone that can truly help. Remember they played Tommy Edman in the outfield over Randy Arozarena and that’s not the only example. Pages has a reputation of being a stronger defensive backstop, though the sample size is pretty small and some of the numbers are pretty close.

The bats, though, aren’t. Herrera did not get a clear shot with the Cards last year, though in fairness when Contreras was healthy Pages did make more sense as a backup catcher. Still, in his 229 AB he put up a 124 OPS+. The only person to put up a higher one was Contreras. Pages was at 82.

Herrera has no options left and he’s not going to improve his defense sitting on the bench or DHing. He needs to be the regular starting catcher. We’ll see if he is.

Infield (5): Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Jose Fermin, Masyn Winn

Right now, I’m assuming that Arenado will still be here when Opening Day rolls around. That probably means he’s been traded by time you get to reading this, but it doesn’t sound like anything has gotten close since that ill-fated deal with the Astros. Obviously a lot of dynamics change with him here but I still, as a fan, hope he is. If you’ve seen the ZIPS projections, you’ve seen that he’s still projected to be the best player on the field for the Cardinals on days when Sonny Gray isn’t pitching.

Not Rollin' On Nolan

Contreras moves to first and while first, as Mr. Washington says, isn’t the easiest place to play, you have to figure he’s going to be beyond the midpoint of the Jose Martinez to Paul Goldschmidt scale. He may not wow folks, but he’ll be solid and the bat is vital to the cause.

The whole “let’s see what we have” mantra seems to revolve around Nolan Gorman, which as a suddenly respectable Kyle Reis said on a recent Cardinal Territory, is a little odd given that he’s had plenty of runway, as the popular phrase goes. Gorman has had over 1000 major league at bats. He’s had some success, he’s had some struggles, but he’s been in the big leagues for a while. He came up in mid May 2022, went back down mid-September of that year, then was a big leaguer until his late demotion in 2024. There’s still a lot of tantalizing potential, though, and it’s understandable why the Cards want to give him as much chance as possible.

Masyn Winn is amazing, dynamic, and the best option for a long term extension. There’s nothing really more to say there.

Most people would probably put Thomas Saggese here and I wouldn’t fault them at all. However, Saggese didn’t necessarily dominate Memphis last year and his MLB stint, in a limited sample, wasn’t great either. I think Saggese gets plenty of time in St. Louis but right now, I think they let him cook a little more at Memphis. Fermin gets the nod because he can play short, he’s really got nothing left to prove, and if he doesn’t work out they could let him go without an issue to clear up a 40-man spot.

Outfield/DH (6): Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Matt Koperniak, Lars Nootbaar, Michael Siani, Jordan Walker

Let me be clear, these are semi-educated guesses on what they will do, not what they should do. My feeling is they should stick Victor Scott II in center field and let him run (no pun intended) with the job, but there’s been way too many raves about Michael Siani for me to believe that they won’t put him out in center, at least to start the season. If you do that, VSII needs to be playing every day in Memphis.

Siani had a nice little run before he got hurt last summer but he’s still no hitter. He had a 61 OPS+ for the year. Granted, VSII only had a 40, but there’s a lot more hitting potential in him. He seemed to be starting to get his legs under him right before Siani returned, hitting .293 in his last 14 games (12 starts) before Siani’s activation. He also had as many homers as Siani in many fewer ABs, for what that’s worth.

Then again, none of that may matter with Arenado still on the team, because his presence pushing Gorman to second means Donovan probably starts in left, moving Nootbaar over to center. It’s not the ideal fit, but they have to have Nootbaar and Walker on the field as much as possible this year and Donovan will probably shuffle between the dirt and the grass on a regular basis.

Burleson’s going to get the first run at DH, though if he struggles you wonder if they’ll use that position to let Nootbaar play without running the risk of injury. I put Koperniak on here because I had an extra spot and there’s always someone that surprises in camp. His year in Memphis last year definitely will get him a long look in spring.

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Starters (5): Erick Fedde, Sonny Gray, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante

When observers struggle about understanding the Cardinals, it’s usually right here where it starts making no sense because it doesn’t work for either path this team has talked about taking. Does this look like a contending rotation? It might be fine and I guess maybe if the offense is clicking on all cylinders it might win you some games. That’s a big if and that’s assuming even the best out of these folks.

Why Matz is ticketed for the rotation instead of the bullpen, where he’s been very effective when he’s been healthy, is a head scratcher. Because if you are taking the other path, a development path, why are you clogging a rotation with a lot of older guys instead of seeing what the young kids have? I get having depth (something you still have with Matz in the bullpen) but I also know that there are a lot of different arms in the minor leagues and, if you will commit to the young guys, fans will appreciate it more. Better 74 wins with a young core that you can dream on than 82 wins with a bunch of veterans that don’t excite anyone.

The 40-man has names like Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, Sem Robberse, Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Zack Thompson. Sure, not everyone of those is going to be a real option for the beginning of the season but all of them could be by the mid-point or so. That’s not even counting Quinn Matthews, last year’s minor league pitcher of the year.

I still maintain that if anyone wants Matz, you deal him. You probably should also flip Fedde because he’s the only one (besides Gray, who isn’t going anywhere) that might bring back something interesting. However, the Cardinals are as much of the middle way as Goldilocks’ last choices in meals and furniture. They’ll plod along, trying to win but trying to develop pitching and satisfy nobody.

Relievers (8): Ryan Fernandez, Ryan Helsley, John King, Kyle Leahy, Matthew Liberatore, Riley O’Brien, JoJo Romero, Chris Roycroft

Last year, Mozeliak built an interesting bullpen out of free agent signings, trades, and the Rule 5 draft. This year, not so much. Thankfully most of the moves he made last year panned out, though perhaps none as much as Fernandez, who went from a R5 guy they wouldn’t use in a blowout in Week 1 to a guy that was getting key outs by the end of the season. He’s likely going to pick up some of the load left behind by Andrew Kittredge and we’ll see if a second season is as strong as the first.

They’ve talked about Liberatore coming into camp as a starter, which he may do, but he had some real success out of the bullpen so I think I’d rather see him there. King has been a solid contributor since coming over in the Jordan Montgomery trade and there’s no reason to think he can’t keep up his low-leverage and mid-leverage work.

Leahy, O’Brien, and Roycroft are probably the churn positions. Graceffo might get a spot out here in spring, but even if not he and some of the other Memphis arms, including those picked up this winter off the waiver wire, will probably tag in and out throughout the season.

The end of games seems to be in good hands with Romero and Helsley. Not moving the closer hopefully won’t backfire on them, but it’s hard to imagine his value being higher than it was this winter.

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That’s the first pass. I’m sure there are a few things to disagree with, so feel free to drop down in the comments and tell me where you’d change things. There’s no doubt that an Arenado trade would shuffle things a bit and a spring training injury or breakout performance might do the same. We’ll revisit this a few times before the final roster is made.

Had a great time with Matt Pauley on this week’s Musial, which I guess shouldn’t be a surprise since he’s used to dealing with insane fans on the regular. This week, Internet legend and Twitter Hall of Famer Katie Woo drops by and next week, we’ve got the Cat joining us. As for Gateway, we’re going to record on Mondays for the next couple of weeks, though family issues kept David away this evening.

For Christmas, my wife picked up for me The Thursday Murder Club. I do like mysteries, growing up on Holmes and Christie, and this one was a hoot. It wasn’t one of those where you spend a lot of time figuring out who did it, though the story is fine, but the characters are excellent, a group of senior citizens at a retirement home who wind up getting involved with and solving a murder. Just a ton of fun and I burned through that and the first sequel in no time. I need to get the second but if you are a mystery lover or just enjoy a good story, check this one out. It’s also going to be a movie on Netflix later in the year, it seems.

Thanks to all that made it this far! I appreciate your patronage!