The Final Mile
The end of the road is proving very rocky for Adam Wainwright
This afternoon, I am going to attend the bi-annual meeting of the Robinson-Kell chapter of the Society of American Baseball Research. I’ve thought about going to the Arkansas SABR before but never worked it out, but I was invited to come down and see what it’s about.
It should be a fun time, but if I’m going to let people know about this Substack, I figured it should have a little fresher content. The problem is, there’s not just a lot to say about the Cardinals right now. Doing Meet Me at Musial and Gateway to Baseball Heaven is going to be a bit of a chore over the next six to eight weeks.
Which means we return to the well that I’ve touched on a few times in this Substack this season. Adam Wainwright.
Adam Wainwright took the mound last night against a Royals team that is one of the few that is worse than the Cardinals this season. Before last night, they had 14 fewer wins than the Cardinals. They are in the bottom five in OPS. If there’s any team that would seem to be almost a lock to provide Waino with one of those two victories he is desperately seeking, it would seem to be the Royals.
Instead, that happened. Wainwright didn’t get an out in the second inning as the Royals just crushed him for eight runs. It was probably the worst start Wainwright has ever had and there have been a number of high-run blowups in his career. People remember Game 5 of the 2012 NLDS because of the remarkable rally, but it was Wainwright getting blown up early that created the hole.
Afterwards, Waino was still Waino. While he admitted that he had nothing today, he still expects to have good days before he calls it a career. You want to take him at his word, because it’s obvious he believes it and he seems to have some reasons for that belief, but it’s also what we’ve heard from Wainwright often this year. Even he admits there’s no reason anyone else should believe him.
When we looked at this last month, Wainwright had just given up seven runs in 3.1 innings to the Marlins and was headed to the injured list. Most of us hoped, I believe, that he’d have enough of a stint on the shelf to store up enough juice for one furious push at the end of the season and walk away with 200 wins in his back pocket.
Instead, Wainwright was gone for just over the minimum stay for a pitcher, coming back on July 24. He gave up just two runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks and while the club didn’t give him a win, that sort of outing coming regularly would hopefully be enough to get him over the finish line. There was some hope that adjustments had been made, flaws had been found.
The next start, he got tagged for two two-run homers and lost to the Cubs 5-1. Still, he went six innings and, given his decreased velocity and his need to rely on command, home runs are going to happen. With this offense, in the right situation, four in six is going to be enough as well. It could have gone better, but the dashboard wasn’t full of flashing lights.
These last two starts, though, make you wonder if anything he gained by his break has dissipated. Seven runs in three innings to the Rockies might be explainable in Coors Field, but not in Busch Stadium. Eight runs to the Royals at any time is inexcusable, especially over three outs.
So now what? There’s a subset of Cardinals fans that seem to be getting angry with Adam Wainwright, blaming the entirety of this lost season on his “selfish” desire to pitch in 2023. Which is a load of nonsense. Take out Wainwright and this team still is under .500, especially since you’d have filled in with Jake Woodford or others that aren’t exactly ace quality. The record might be better, they might be ahead of the Pirates, but that’s about it and that’s not worth the tradeoff of slamming an icon.
Thankfully, that subset is pretty small. The rest of us are sad for what is happening for Wainwright, wishing he got a better ending, and wondering if the end of Uncle Charlie comes sooner than expected.
The silver lining to the Cardinals being absolutely terrible is that they don’t have to make the hard decisions with Wainwright. If you want to look at it in one manner, he’s helping the Cards by keeping them in contention for a better draft pick next year. Nobody should be living or dying by the results of the Cardinals games in August and September. It’s more about having an extended canvas to test things out.
Last night, Zack Thompson came in to replace Wainwright in the second inning. He immediately allowed a homer but settled in and went four innings, striking out five. There are only so many starts left in the season but having Thompson available for an extended look does help him put his hat into the ring for 2024. At least one starter (hopefully just one) will come from the internal options and while Matthew Liberatore may have the edge, especially after his game with against the Rays, there’s nothing locked down.
So let Wainwright continue to make his starts. If he looks like he has it, ride him five innings and see if the offense and bullpen can come together to get him a win. If not, have someone like Thompson ready to come in early on, much like last night, and eat the innings Wainwright couldn’t.
Running Wainwright off isn’t an option.
I don’t think that the club really wants him to take his ball and go home. For one thing, there are celebrations planned and giveaways scheduled that relate to his final appearances at Busch Stadium. His Big League Impact football draft is coming up and while he will likely do this even after he retires, it would be a little awkward to have it if he left just a week or so before.
Even without that sort of motivation, though, it’s clear that he’s still got a lot of say and influence in the clubhouse. His excitement and pride when Liberatore came off the field with his eight innings complete was notable. That sort of encouragement is only going to help Liberatore as he moves on with his career. Wainwright’s got that for everyone, but especially those pitchers under his wing. We saw how Jack Flaherty and his mother honored Waino after the trade to Baltimore.
He’s also got a ton of knowledge to share with folks and that shouldn’t be underestimated or dismissed. He can be an extra pitching coach, a sounding board, someone that can help a pitcher come up with another wrinkle or convince a hurler why he shouldn’t throw such a pitch. He may not be helping the club much on the field, but he still has value to the Cardinals.
Adam Wainwright has just 45 more games as a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. Even if those games don’t go great, let’s do our best to savor them. His kind may not come around again.