Storybooks Aren't Real

The struggles of Adam Wainwright reminds us not everyone gets a great ending.

As I sit down to write this, Adam Wainwright has just walked off the mound of his holiday start. If you wanted to look for any sort of positive, he struck out 30% of the outs he recorded. Unfortunately, that meant he left after one out in the bottom of the fourth in Miami, down 4-0 and with the bases loaded.

JoJo Romero subsequently allowed all of those runs to score and, while one was unearned, Wainwright’s ERA at the end of Independence Day is now over 8.00. After turning in a solid start against the Mets, when he gave up three runs in 6.1 innings for his only quality start of the year, he’s been torched for 20 runs (19 earned) in his last three, three starts were he’s totaled nine innings. While that makes for easy ERA calculations, it doesn’t make for winning baseball. Barring some sort of remarkable and un-2023-like rally, the Cardinals will lose all three of those starts and remain double-digits out of first place.

There’s a section of the fanbase that is unsentimental and uncaring of anything more than these results. They say that if Wainwright didn’t want to deal with these harsh realities, he should have stayed home after 2022. They point out that he could walk away at any time. I believe a large majority of them would help him pack up his locker.

That unsparing view of a franchise icon may be harsh but it has more than a grain of truth to it. I believe it too quickly dismisses the fact that Wainwright was one of the best pitchers that went to the playoffs last season, putting up a 3.09 ERA/3.54 FIP until he was hit by a comebacker at the end of August. Even though the Baseball Savant page showed a lot of blue, he used his craft and guile to get outs and keep the Cardinals in the playoff picture.

September was hard, sure, but if you are Adam Wainwright and you know how well you were for five months and you think you know why you were bad for the last one, it’s understandable why the veteran would want to try to go out on a higher note. Looking at the situation, he also likely thought there was another shot at a World Series, something that he’s not participated in since 2013 and hasn’t actually won (since he was hurt in 2011) since he was almost a rookie. That pull had to be strong, especially since it took him away from that storybook ending of walking off the field and into the sunset with his brother Yadier Molina and his longtime friend Albert Pujols.

---

It’s not like this was a situation that wasn’t foreseeable.

I don’t know that anyone really thought it would be this bad, but the pitcher Wainwright was in May when he came off the injured list was reasonable. He went around five innings. He gave up four runs. He could have a really good start, he could blow up.

As noted, some of the underlying metrics indicated that even the success last year wasn’t as sustainable as we’d hope and age catches up with everyone, even wonderful personalities and big hearts. With limited strikeout ability, Wainwright required 1) strong command, 2) an excellent defense, and 3) a good bit of offensive support. He’s not really gotten any of that.

Counting today, four of his 11 starts have seen him get a run or less of support. He did have three starts in a row where the Cards scored eight, 16, and eight, but those deluges haven’t been common or consistent. It doesn’t help that he often puts the offense in an early hole, adding pressure for them to dig themselves out (or, if the hole is deep enough, resignation that this again isn’t their day). He’s allowed 27 runs in the first three innings. Running through his game log, it’s like this:

Detroit—Allows three in the second, Cards lose 6-5 in 10.
At Boston—Four scoreless frames and Cards up 2-0 before Boston scores, Cards win 8-6.
LA Dodgers—Gives up two in the first, Cards rally and win 16-8.
At Cincinnati—Gives up a run in the first (Cards scored in top of frame), Cards win 8-5.
Kansas City—Allows a run in the third, Cards lose 7-0.
At Texas—After Cards score one in the top of the 2nd, allows three in the bottom. Cards lose 4-3.
Cincinnati—Allows one in the first, Cards lose 4-3.
At NY Mets—Allows one in the first, Cards immediately answer and win 5-3.
Chicago (in London)—Two runs in the second, Cards lose 9-1.
Houston—Six in the second, Cards lose 14-0.
Miami—Three in the first, Cards currently down 7-0. (James Naile just gave up three more runs, so it’s 10-0.)

Reading through that, it’s only been this last three starts where Waino has seemed to put the game out of reach early. Giving up two, even three runs early shouldn’t be a death knell for this offense. Given that there’s nobody just pounding on the door at Memphis—does anyone think the good appearance by Dakota Hudson on Saturday means he’s figured it all out?—pushing him out of the rotation isn’t the most obvious thing.

On the con side of that argument—there’s a ton of blue on that Baseball Savant page. His fastball is slower than almost anyone’s. The hitters aren’t chasing out of the zone, which is something he needs. His curveball spin is still good and he’s not necessarily getting blasted with hard contact, but he’s in the bottom 1-2% of things like xERA and xwOBA. If his current results are inflated, it’s not by much.

---

So now what?

The Cardinals will go to bed tonight 35-50. It would not be a surprise, since the Reds are playing the Nationals, if they were 12 games out of the division at the start of play tomorrow. The wild card chase is little better, currently 10 1/2 with still an opportunity to grow today. What little flicker of possibility the Cardinals might have had before the London trip has been well and truly snuffed out. The only drama left in this season is whether they can rally enough to either get out of last (and hopefully also pass Pittsburgh) and who gets traded at the deadline.

So there’s no harm in letting Wainwright chase after win 200. As rough as these three outings have been, there’s still a better than average chance each start that he’ll go out there and at least keep you in the game through five. Match up one of those night where he allows three runs with a night where the offense comes to play and the bullpen is rested and you add to his win total.

The idea that a competitor like Uncle Charlie walks away midseason is not one I really think has validity. It’s true that Wainwright’s postgame comments of late have had a little more resignation, a little less “I made some bad pitches” and more “I don’t know what to tell you.” I wouldn’t be surprised if he regrets not taking the storybook ending and walking off with Yadi and Albert. (I wonder if he’d had a chance to pitch last October if that would have weighed toward retirement or not.) Adam Wainwright is one of those guys who honors his commitments, though. When he said he’d pitch this season, he meant he’d pitch this season, not just duck out when he wasn’t having fun anymore.

It’s also at least theoretically possible that Wainwright could find a groove like Pujols did in 2022. Remember, about this time last year AP was under .200 and thinking about heading home. He figured something out and the rest is history. It’s harder to imagine that with a starting pitcher, just due to the nature of things, but it’s not impossible.

Whatever the case, Adam Wainwright has left his mark on this organization and, in this lost season, can dictate his ending a little bit more than if the club was pushing for a division title. It’s a silver lining of this terrible record that we don’t have to have a tough conversation. Nobody remembers Bob Gibson’s final year and it’s unlikely 2023 will stain the outstanding and amazing legacy of Number 50 at all.

---

Addendum: After the game, Oli Marmol said that Wainwright would be going on the injured list. Whether this is a specific injury or a chance for him to figure something out, I don’t know. Hopefully, much like in 2018, he comes back strong after his IL stint and gets those last two wins.