Roster Guess 2.0: Spring Flings
As we get closer and closer, figuring out the roster gets easier
So many things have happened since we looked at the projected 2024 roster back in January. We’ve had more than half of spring training. There have been some roster cuts. The Cardinals even signed a real live major league free agent! Crazy times we live in. It seems about time we should think through what our best guess is for Opening Day and what that means for 2025.
The Cardinals still have 44 players in camp, which means that there are 18 cuts left to come. However, the picture is looking much clearer than it was and, honestly, it was never that smudged to begin with.
Catcher (2): Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages
I’m still not completely sure which way the Cardinals are going to go when it comes to the usage of these two guys, but nothing has happened this spring to change the plan of both of them making the roster. Pages has 24 at bats in 10 games, Herrera 21 in 11. Herrera also has an OPS over double of what Pages has put up, which tracks with their reputations.
There’s been good press about both of them this spring, though if you are getting bad press in spring training you are really doing something wrong. I’d like to think the offensive profile of Herrera will win the day, but as much as we like to think that the Cardinal Way is changing, until we see it, it’s hard to believe it.
Infield (6): Nolan Arenado, Luken Baker, Jose Barrero, Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn
Baker and Barrero are the first changes to what I had originally thrown on the page before spring training started. I never really gave Baker much of a thought back then, but he’s shown some good things this spring and, more to the point, he has nothing left to prove in Memphis. He got two ABs in Memphis in 2021, then played there for the majority of the next three seasons. Baker technically has an option left, but why would you use it? He’d be old for AAA and he’s already the Redbirds’ career home run leader. While I’m not sold on Baker being a huge asset in the big leagues, there’s no doubt the power would be a great thing off the bench and his approach at the plate (from this point forward when I refer to spring stats, take them with all the caveats and a huge bunch of salt) has him with more home runs than anyone else and more walks than strikeouts. That’ll play.
Barrero has also had a good spring, with two home runs and three steals. His talent has been lauded from those in Jupiter and he’d be a very interesting person to see get time in St. Louis. There are two drawbacks, however. One is that he is out of options. If things go south, he’d have to clear waivers to go to Memphis, and it seems likely someone else might take a flier on him. Secondly, he’s not on the 40-man roster, though that can be arranged. Zack Thompson could be put on the 60-day IL or he could take Michael Helman’s place on the 40-man, because Helman would more likely be a guy that would clear waivers and stay in the organization. The Cardinal have often gone the path of least resistance, which would be Jose Fermin in this case, but we’ll gamble they are going to do something different. If it’s Fermin, though, no one would be terribly surprised.
Outfield (5): Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Michael Siani, Jordan Walker
In a just society, Victor Scott II would be starting Opening Day in St. Louis. Granted, he had a strong spring last year and his start in the bigs proved he wasn’t ready for it, but he’s looked much more polished and prepared this spring. His OPS is over 1.000, he has five steals, and he, Herrera, and Nootbaar are the only ones that have filled all of the double/triple/homer columns on their stat line in Grapefruit League play.
Maybe he still can be. Maybe the Cards make Donovan a utility guy that plays various places every day, which allows for Nootbaar to be basically your left fielder and Scott your center fielder. However, that would require the club to let go of Siani and I just can’t convince myself that’s going to happen. Talk about new Cardinal Ways all you like, but for this team to drop an elite center field glove feels like a sign that Earth-2 John Mozeliak is actually running things.
As Jack Buck said about Garry Templeton, if Scott’s not starting, he’s not departing…for St. Louis. The man needs to play and Memphis time isn’t as much of an issue for him as it is for Baker.
I picked Matt Kopernick as an option in my first draft and so I was very interested to see how his spring would go. In a different year, he probably steals a bench role. Two homers, a .355 average, and an OPS of 1.039 shows a player that was definitely trying to make an impression in spring. Getting wrapped up in spring stats is dangerous, as we’ve seen the last couple of years, and with this crowded roster, it doesn’t feel like there’s any way to squeeze him on here. I bet we see him sometime this season, though.
Starting pitchers (5): Erick Fedde, Sonny Gray, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante
The more things change, the more they stay the same. With injuries around the league, you could still possibly see a Fedde or Matz trade, clearing the way for either Michael McGreevy or Matthew Liberatore (with Quinn Matthews waiting in the wings) but even though it makes a ton of sense, it made a ton of sense to move them this winter and, well, you see how that went.
So barring some last minute deus ex machina move that clears up a rotation spot, the same five guys that ended 2023 in the rotation will start 2024 in the same place. Pallante’s created a lot of concern this spring, though it was nice to see a somewhat better outing today against the Blue Jays. Gray has given up five homers, more than anyone else on the team, and has only pitched 6.2 innings. While nobody’s terribly worked up about that, he allowed more homers last year than any year in his career so it’s something to keep an eye on.
Matz and Mikolas have the lowest spring ERAs in this group, which might tell you all you need to know about spring training stats. Mikolas hasn’t shown that things are going to be remarkably different this year. Expect 6-8 strong starts, 6-8 starts where he gets torched, and then the rest somewhere in the middle.
Relief pitchers (8): Ryan Fernandez, Ryan Helsley, John King, Kyle Leahy, Matthew Liberatore, Phil Maton, JoJo Romero, Chris Roycroft
Mr. Maton is the latest arrival, having been signed just a couple of days ago and still not having made an appearance in Cardinal red. Still, he’s a lock for this spot as is most everyone else. Some of the more interesting options, such as Riley O’Brien and Gordon Graceffo, have already been sent out to minor league camp. The only real decision seems to be whether Nick Anderson can use his veteran card to push out one of Leahy or Roycroft.
Anderson’s had a rough spring in limited action, but he does have six strikeouts in 5.1 innings. That said, he’s also given up three homers in that span, two of which came today in mop-up work against the Blue Jays. If this was a chance for him to stake his claim, he didn’t do it. Now, given that he could be lost from the system should he not make it and Leahy and Roycroft have options, it would be very Cardinals to add Anderson, see if he can turn it around in the big leagues, then cut him and bring up whichever younger pitcher they had sent down.
Still, Anderson has given up a run or more to every team he’s faced this spring except the Marlins and given the club doesn’t see Miami until after the All-Star Break, it would seem smarter to let some other team take that gamble. Leahy in particular has had a good spring and it would be pretty crushing for him to lose a spot to a struggling veteran, I would think.
I felt like throwing an Alanis Morissette lyric in right here (“So what it all comes down to, is that everything is going to be fine, fine, fine.”) if only to confuse those that know me, but it’s still not completely certain that everything is going to be fine. The offense has been quiet all spring and you hope that’s because they are adjusting to what Brant Brown is teaching them. However, it could also be second (third?) verse, same as the first.
If that’s the case, things could get bad quickly. This isn’t a team designed to win a lot of 2-1 games. If they can take a lead to the bullpen, I think there’s some good arms down there that will more often than not make sure it stands up. However, we’ve seen too many times over the last couple of years a quick hole dug and it never gets filled it. The rotation, as currently constructed, doesn’t give the warm and fuzzy feelings.
If they hit well and pitch well enough, they’ll be a fringe contender and we’ll see more winning days than losing ones. If they don’t, the only burnishing of John Mozeliak’s legacy will be what he can do at the trading deadline.
In the past, I’ve tended to stick to just Cardinal podcasts in my listening rotation. Talking About Birds, Cardinals Off Day, Playing Catch, those have been the ones in my regular rotation, with occasional forays into other shows if I have time. This winter, however, I found out about The Rest is History and it’s, well, brilliant. Many of you may already know about it since it seems it is the biggest history podcast out there, but if not and you have the history bug, it’s definitely worth checking out. They do series of podcasts on a topic and I’ve listened to various ones, such as the life of Eva Peron and the summer of ‘68 (not a lot of Cardinals talk in that one, sadly). Plenty of WWII episodes and since I’m at the age where you either get into that or grilling, I’ve got those on my phone. I imagine I’ll be mixing in these even when the baseball content ramps up during the season.
Another non-baseball podcast has just started and immediately got my attention. I’ve often wondered about rewatch podcasts, where the cast goes through every episode of their TV show and talk about things from it. When I saw that they were doing one for Star Wars Rebels, I immediately subscribed. Pod of Rebellion has only had one episode so far, but it’s wonderful to hear the voices of Hera, Sabine, and Ezra talking about their first experiences with Star Wars and how they watch the show. Looking forward to their upcoming shows and you know there will be a lot of fun guests in this one.
As for my own podcasts, they are continuing to plug along. Great guests continue to show up over on Musial, including fellow Substacker Dayn Perry this week. I’m sure you are subscribed to Birdy Work if you are here but if not, you should be. David and I continue to hold down the fort on Gateway, but we’re efforting a special guest for the 300th episode of the show on Podbean.
It’s the heart of tax season, which keeps things hopping, but it’s also Lent, which means I’m doing daily Star Wars devotionals over here. If you’d rather get them emailed to you, let me know as I have a list of folks I send them to every morning.
Plus as the season starts there’s #bombsaway on Twitter and The Cardinal Six wherever I can remember to share it. Always a lot of fun to see how those turn out.
Hope you all stay safe if you are in the path of spring storms and we’ll do it again soon.
Any way of taking part in the Cards Six without going via X? It became such a hellhole that I stopped using it and then deleted my account. But I'd like to take part if you were duplicating the info on Substack or some other mechanism.