Who's Your Padre?

The Cardinals head to the West Coast with payback on their minds.

For the Cardinals, life is good. But it can be better.

On the heels of taking two of three from their toughest NL Central competition, St. Louis heads out to San Diego for their first battles against the top of the NL West. Now the Cardinals get to really measure how good they are.

It’s not a complete test, of course. The Padres have been affected by COVID and the related quarantines so the Redbirds won’t see Fernando Tatis Jr. or Wil Myers, among others, but the Padres are good enough that even without a couple of weapons, it’ll help see if the Cards are a true NL contender or just a team that’s a big fish in a small NL Central pool.

The Last Time We Met…..

The Cardinals didn’t see the Padres in 2020, of course, except for when it really mattered. Given the COVID situation, they had to travel to San Diego for the first ever Wild Card Series and came oh so close to shocking the world. A team that had been dormant offensively all year long scored seven in Game One, four in the first and two more before Chris Paddack left before the end of the third. Somehow that offense showed up against the next night, getting to starter Zach Davies for four runs and in two innings and carrying a 6-2 lead into the bottom of the sixth inning, just 12 outs away from advancing.

Then the bottom fell out. The Padres tied the game in the sixth with a mixture of Genesis Cabrera walking people and Tatis and Manny Machado going back to back. They put up three more in the seventh as Daniel Ponce de Leon allowed a home run to the first batter he faced (Myers) and an two-out, two-run shot that was a dagger (Tatis, again). Myers hit another in the eighth and, while the Cardinals tried to make it interesting in the ninth, getting the go-ahead run to the plate with nobody out, old friend Trevor Rosenthal finally slammed the door. Game 3 was anti-climatic, a good Jack Flaherty start backed up with no offense, a solid representation of 2020.

The last time the Cards saw the Pads in the regular season was also at Petco, June 28-30 of 2019. St. Louis dropped the first two games in that series, losing the first 3-1 as Michael Wacha drove in the only run of the game but also allowed back-to-back homers to Tatis (sigh) and Eric Hosmer in the sixth that wound up doing enough damage. The second game was a rout as Dakota Hudson allowed seven runs and didn’t get out of the second and Ponce de Leon added some fuel by allowing four more. The weekend was salvaged when the Cardinals rallied from down 3-0 after five against Joey Lucchesi (whom we saw not long ago in the Mets series, if this boxscore looks familiar) to tie it up behind a two-run single by Yairo Munoz and an eighth-inning single by Tyler O’Neill. Matt Wieters provided the heroics in the 11th, smashing a two-run homer off of Brad Wieck, with Tyler Webb and Dominic Leone combining to finish things off.

The Opponent

What a difference a year makes. An outbreak of COVID like the Padres are dealing with would have at least put this weekend in jeopardy and it likely wouldn’t have been played in 2020. I mean, it’s not quite to the level of what the Cards had last year but it’s not nothing.

It didn’t stop them from winning two out of three from Colorado, of course, but beating the Rockies isn’t as challenging as some other teams. They are 6-5 in May, having recently dropped a series to the Giants after taking two of three from Pittsburgh. They currently sit 2.5 games behind San Francisco in the NL West and in the first wild card position.

San Diego’s +27 run differential matches the Cardinals, though the Cards come into this set with a record that is two games better. Surprisingly (at least to me), the Padres aren’t really doing it with the longball, as their 37 homers sit 23rd in baseball. Their OPS is also in that range, with Trent Graham leading qualifying Padres with a .849 mark.

Perhaps befitting Petco Park’s reputation, the Padres are doing it from the mound. Their 2.82 staff ERA leads the major leagues and their batting average against is tied with the Brewers for the top spot. This well may be a sequel to the series we just saw in Milwaukee.

The Mound Men

Friday: Johan Oviedo (0-1, 4.61 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 4.36 xERA) vs. Joe Musgrove (2-4, 3.00 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 3.67 xERA)

Saturday: Adam Wainwright (2-3, 3.80 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 3.42 xERA) vs. Chris Paddack (1-3, 4.78 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 4.02 xERA)

Sunday: Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 4.76 xERA) vs. Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 3.32 xERA)

—xERA courtesy of FanGraphs

Musgrove, of course, threw the first no-hitter in Padres history earlier this season, leaving the Mets* as the only team without one. Musgrove left his start against the Dodgers on April 25 after three innings (but 77 pitches), having allowed two runs (one earned). Since that time, he’s seen the Giants twice and 10 runs (nine earned) in 10 total innings. He’s not looked like the pitcher that started off allowing just one run in his first three starts, for sure. St. Louis saw him twice last year when he was with the Pirates. The last time, he struck out 11 and allowed three hits in six scoreless innings, though the Cards rallied against the Pirate bullpen to win.

Paddack has been worth -0.7 bWAR this year, which should mean he’s a weak link but probably means he’ll throw a shutout. Paddack just went three innings last time out against the Giants, allowing no runs, as he was coming off the injured list. Besides a rough outing against the Brewers (five runs in five innings) he’s been OK, but he doesn’t go deep into games. He reached 5.1 innings in the start before his IL stint, his season high. As noted above, the last time they saw him was in the playoffs and they also faced him in that June 2019 series.

Weathers has been a nice story for the Padres, even if it makes me feel old to realize that his father has been retired for 11 years. Ryan has bounced between relieving and starting this year but been effective in either role. He’s struck out 20 in 22.1 innings and allowed just two runs over that span. He followed Paddack in that last game against the Giants and also threw three scoreless innings. He did go 5.2 innings in one start against the Dodgers but he probably shouldn’t be expected to go deep either.

The Cards will likely get to see a lot of the Padres bullpen. Unfortunately that bullpen is second in reliever ERA in the majors (2.64) and has struck out 190 in 167.1 innings. A little of that is Weathers, of course, but I would hope the Cardinals could make some hay off the starters. Trying to rally late, like they did against the Brewers, might not work again.

The Hot Seat

I don’t know that anyone is really sitting here, save maybe John Gant and his walk rate, but he had good results against the Brewers. One person that’s not here, at least not as much as in the past? Jeff Albert. There’s less talk about the offense being disappointing, especially since Dylan Carlson moved up to the second spot. Getting an all-world third baseman helps, I guess.

Assorted Crudités

Paul DeJong is dealing with…well, nobody seems to know exactly what it is, but it sounds like a bone bruise. Even though he stayed with the team, it seems a good possibility that he’ll hit the IL and Jose Rondon will get called up. That will necessitate a 40-man move, but given that Jordan Hicks probably won’t be back for six weeks and has been out a while already, they could likely shift him to the 60 day and create a spot. Rondon had a good spring and is hitting .250 with four homers at Memphis so far this season.

Nolan Arenado has an .867 OPS and 26 homers in 129 games against the Padres. Paul Goldschmidt, .945 OPS, 22 homers, 130 games.

Dylan Carlson still hasn’t had an extra base hit since May 1. He hit three homers in his first six games and none since.

Random Links

Currently listening to: Chirps Episode 105: The Best Team In Baseball?? I will postpone other shows that I am listening to when a new Chirps drops as I did this week, when I was working my way through the newest Seeing Red when this came out. Since I’m to the Chirp of the Week, I’ll be shifting back to Will and Bernie soon enough.

Currently reading: Still on the Prospectus, though I’ve also been thumbing through Benjamin Hochman’s 11 in ‘11. So far, so good, though I hope that it’s going to cover all of the season and not just the moments we know so well. It opened with the Freese homer, which make sense, and I’ve not gotten much past that yet.

Personal links: Musial went up last night and I’ve got a post about yesterday’s game at the main blog.

Also, I get to go to a baseball game tomorrow night. I don’t actually get out to many, usually just the one Blogger Day game in St. Louis, but tomorrow I’ll be out to see Springfield take on the Travelers in Little Rock. Looking forward to seeing Nolan Gorman and the rest!