When We Were DeJong
The shortstop heads to Memphis in a surprising move.
Paul DeJong made his major league debut May 28, 2017, which means we are just a couple of weeks from him hitting five years in the major leagues. It was a memorable debut, as he pinch-hit in Coors Field and took one out of the yard, homering in his first major league at bat.
The rest of the year DeJong worked to make shortstop his own. He finished with a .285/.325/.532 slash line, numbers very much buoyed by the 25 home runs he hit. Debuting before his 24th birthday (he turned 24 on the very special August 2 date that year), he looked like another great product of the Cardinals minor league system. Sure, the walk rate wasn’t great (4.7%) and the strikeout rate was a touch high (28.0%) but as he got comfortable with the league, those things would likely change.
The Cardinals liked what they saw so much that they went ahead and did something they don’t always do, they signed him to a long-term contract well before he was going to reach arbitration, much less free agency. With just that partial year as experience, DeJong inked a six-year, $26 million deal with two option years at the end. His financial stability was assured and the money would also give him an edge in the lineup.
The immediate returns on the contract were good. 2018 wasn’t quite as strong as his rookie season, but he still hit 19 homers and improved both his walk and strikeout rates while missing six weeks with a fractured left hand, an injury that was the start of many a health issue for the shortstop.
2019 looked to be the breakout year. DeJong started the season like a house afire, hitting .342/.403/.607 in the first month of the season. He had 14 doubles and five homers at that point and everything seemed to be finally going right for him.
If you’ve listened to the podcasts over the last few years, you know the end of April 2019 is pretty much where I mark DeJong’s decline. Let’s compare his career before and after that mark.
Debut through April 2019: 1,062 PA, 49 HR, .272/.329/.497, 119 wRC+
May 2019 through today: 1,197 PA, 48 HR, .204/.290/.377, 82 wRC+
It’s probably a fair argument to say that DeJong’s been below league average for most of his career than he’s been above it. Over that latter span, his walk rate was 9.3% compared to 6.3% in the early going (his strikeout rate was about 25 and a half either way) so strangely as he got more selective, everything fell apart for him.
The last two years, of course, have been a smoking crater for DeJong. You could write off 2020 for everyone but especially those like DeJong that came down with COVID-19 and had trouble shaking off its effects. He did have a fractured rib in 2021, which obviously didn’t help, but it’s not at all accurate to blame all of the issue on that.
This spring looked so encouraging for DeJong. He was making contact, he hit for a high average, he didn’t really strike out much. Overall, it really looked like those stories we got in the offseason, about him going to labs and reworking his stroke, were going to pay off. Then the season started and all the highs of spring were erased and then some. Currently he has a 26 OPS+, which is abysmal for someone that has more than a handful of at bats, much less a nominal starter for a team expecting to make the playoffs. The only thing in his corner was his defense, at least by defensive runs created, which had him as one of the best in baseball.
Which brings us to today. In a surprising move—not because it wasn’t deserved, just no one really expected it—Paul DeJong was sent to Memphis. We’ve seen a trip to Beale Street and some BBQ ribs do wonders for struggling major league hitters in the past, though they aren’t always able to keep their gains intact when they return to St. Louis.
But for a guy that has admitted he can get into his own head, having some success is important and being able to tinker without the pressure of winning at the big league level can only help as well. If he can get on a good run, there’s at least a chance his mind will be clear enough that he can contribute at the major league level again.
Of course, it’s always possible that this trip isn’t the fix that the front office hopes it will be, which will cause some other issues down the road. For right now, DeJong can work with some new voices, see some less qualified pitching, and hopefully find his groove. We’ll see who comes up to St. Louis first, him or Nolan Gorman. The answer may tell us a lot about the future of this season and of both players.