The Sharp Decline

It's definitely not getting better

As I am writing this, the Cardinals are putting the finishing touches on a sweep in Philadelphia. The problem is, they aren’t the broom. Well, it’s a problem if you still want them to win games. The question remains who is wanting them to do that these days.

While we were recording Meet Me At Musial this week, my cohost and good friend Allen Medlock brought up the fact that it felt like there’d been more and more just absolute blowouts of late. This was Saturday morning, before the Cardinals went out and lost 12-1 to the Phillies. I agreed that felt like things had gotten worse but I thought I’d start poking around to simplistically find out.

Let’s start with the obvious. I gathered up all the losses the Cardinals had posted through Saturday and got the average amount they were outscored in just the losses. March only had one game but I left it on its own anyway, just because.

March -1.00
April -3.06
May -3.15
June -3.81
July -3.33
August -5.07

About now you are probably using the same expression that Dr. Watson used to talk about his constipation issues with his famous companion. A team that was in last place because of a lack of pitching then trades off the little pitching it has probably isn’t going to start getting significantly better. Which is fair, but it’s still interesting to put these numbers into perspective.

July 30, the Cardinals defeated the Cubs 3-0. In the middle of that game was when the trades started, with Jordan Hicks getting dealt to Toronto and Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Texas hitting the public in the latter part of that game. Since the Cards didn’t play the next day, it makes for a pretty easy dividing mark.

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Before the trades, the Cardinals were outscored 503-530 in the 107 games played at that point. That means that, on average, they scored a quarter of a run less than their opponents. Since the trades, the deficit has been 86-131, or an average of almost two runs per game. That’s a smaller sample, of course, but it’s also pretty stark.

The offense has lost Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman (for a time), Dylan Carlson, and Lars Nootbaar for all of parts of August. Yet before the trades, this team was slashing .257/.332/.430 and afterwards .251/.322/.424. A slight dropoff but, all in all, the lineup seems to be producing about the same as it was beforehand.

That is, of course, until you average out those runs noted in the above paragraph. 503 runs over 107 games means the offense was putting up 4.70 before the trade deadline but just 3.74 after. Even with the best pitching staff, losing a run off of your total is going to be noticeable in the standings. The Cardinals, as you may have heard, do not have the best pitching staff.

St. Louis had an ERA of 4.56 and gave up just under a homer per game in the first 107 games of the season. Flip the calendar to August and, with no Montgomery, with no Hicks, with no Stratton, no Flaherty, that ERA is 5.55 and the HR/game has moved up to 1.35. Scoring one run less and giving up one run more asks for some ugly outings.

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Baseball Reference defines a blowout as a game that was decided by five or more runs. In April, two of the team’s 18 losses fit that criteria. May saw four of 13, June four of 16, and July two of 13.

Going into Sunday’s game, St. Louis had lost 14 games in August. Seven of them would be considered blowouts. It’s definitely getting worse.

Given the bodies that are being pressed into service with the trades and first Steven Matz then Matthew Liberatore being put on the injured list, all of this would seem self-explanatory. However, some of those arms are putting up better numbers than the rest of the staff. Zack Thompson, a pitcher almost left for dead after a Memphis demotion and role change, has a 2.84 August ERA in 19 innings with 23 strikeouts in that span. Dakota Hudson might not be doing anything different and the underlying numbers indicate he’s the same mediocre pitcher that he ever was, but until last night’s start he had a 3.75 ERA in August and had four wins to boot.

But then you have Miles Mikolas, the pitcher that you are counting on for 2024, posting a 5.81 mark this month with five homers in 31 innings. (Except for May, 2023 has been pretty ugly for Mikolas honestly, since that ERA mark is still less than what he put up in April and in June.) You have Adam Wainwright, who has made some steps but still has no margin for error. The errors come anyway and the results are saddening.

Then there’s the bullpen. John King’s been nice since he came over, though he doesn’t come into many situations of note. JoJo Romero has been a find, putting up a 2.92 ERA with a remarkable 17:1 K/BB rate. Casey Lawrence has done a fine job of coming into games completely out of hand and pitching somewhat competently, though he does have a 5.00 ERA for the club.

But Giovanny Gallegos (14.73 ERA in less than 4 August innings)? Andre Pallante (7.71)? Andrew Suarez (5.11)? Even if the Cardinals were able to have a lead past the fifth inning, it seems hard to imagine they could keep it through the ninth.

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In the process of writing this the Redbirds dropped that game to Philadelphia. Losing just by three runs is what counts as progress these days, I guess. A sweep in Philadelphia for the first time since they opened Citizens Bank Park. There are going to be a lot of “first time since” the rest of the way, I imagine.

Currently, the worst records in baseball stack up like this:

Oakland 38-93
Kansas City 41-90
Colorado 49-81
Chicago White Sox 52-79
St. Louis 56-75

Even if the Cards lost all 31 remaining games, they probably aren’t passing Oakland for the worst team in 2023. That means their streak of not being the worst continues, a 105-year mark that is something, at least. Odds are reasonable—though not certain—that they’ll be better than Colorado as well and not be the worst team in the National League. Everyone that the Rockies play from here on out is in the hunt save the Padres.

The Cardinals schedule is full of contenders as well, though. Padres and Pirates (one of the lesser teams but given how they fared in Pittsburgh, you can’t feel good about them) in Busch. Atlanta, Cincy, and Baltimore on the road. Philadelphia and Milwaukee back at home, then a West Coast jaunt to San Diego, a swing to Milwaukee, and then the last three at home against the Reds.

There are 31 games left. It seems reasonable enough to think they can win seven to avoid 100 losses. Going 17-14, missing out on 90 losses? Very unlikely. So where’s the sweet spot, do you think? 10-21, finishing at 66-96? That feels about right. Which is what is so wrong about this season. At least there’s the consolation of the best draft pick since J.D. Drew in 1998. That one turned out OK.