The New Hotness
Jordan Walker is scorching. Does that mean anything?
After a week, the phenom was hitting .500. The Cardinals’ number one prospect had come to camp on a mission and it was obvious that the only reason he wouldn’t make the team was that the Cardinals were doing something they never really do, manipulate service time.
Yet, even with the fact that spring training was interrupted and life as we knew it was upended, Dylan Carlson didn’t make the club for Opening Day 2020, delayed as it was.
In part, it was because he cooled off a bit. After going 7-14 with two doubles and a triple in his first six games, he went 3-18 with a double in his next six before COVID-19 sent everyone home for a while. In part, it was because there wasn’t a clear spot for him and the Cardinals wanted to see what they had in Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill, while Dexter Fowler’s contract meant he was going to be getting regular playing time. In part, it was because there wasn’t a clear spot for him on the 40-man roster.
The Cardinals getting hit with COVID and having their roster thrown all out of whack led to Carlson getting the call a couple of weeks into the shortened 2020 season, of course, and there was always an argument to be made for him to come north even with those other folks that would have been starting. The point is, of course, that spring training performance always has to be taken with a grain of salt. For every Albert Pujols, there are ten John Nogowskis.
Jordan Walker has been phenomenal this spring, leading the team in home runs and putting up a gaudy 1.429 OPS. It’s true that there’s a lot more reason to think this is for real than if someone like Nogowski was posting the numbers, giving Walker’s pedigree, his work in the Arizona Fall League, and the expectation that he will be in the majors at some point in 2023.
It’s been an amazing seven games and it’s a serious data point for him getting to ride in a convertible on March 30. If he does this for the next three weeks or so, that drumbeat will be impossible to ignore.
However, that means that there is still 75% of the exhibition season left. Corey Dickerson had 10 straight hits last year but no one in their right mind thought that small sample was an indication he should be a regular starter. The de-emphasis of small samples is one of the most notable things from the sabermetric revolution of the past 25 years. A lot of things can happen that can make the first week of spring seem like a mirage by time the club goes north.
Even with a strong spring, though, the roadblocks remain:
There’s not a clear spot for him to take. Remember a month ago when Lars Nootbaar was the belle of the ball? Everyone was talking about his exit velocity, his second half of 2022 with 10 home runs, stuff like that. We all want to see Nootbaar on the regular, right?
Then there’s Tyler O’Neill, who has hit 40 homers in the majors not that long ago. Given his work this offseason, it’s reasonable that the club wants to give him a good run to see if his changes can pay off and he can be that offensive force that he’s always projected to be.
Perhaps you can make the argument that the last phenom, Mr. Carlson, should get bumped for the new hotness. After all, Carlson struggled last year while dealing with injuries. It seems too early to write him off, though, and it’s questionable if sharing playing time is the way to get him back on track.
That’s not even including Alec Burleson, who dominated Memphis last year and doesn’t seem to have anything to prove there. The DH time seems promised to Juan Yepez, at least the bulk of it. Ironically, the Cardinals have too many young guys for their youngest guy to get a shot.There’s not a spot on the 40-man easily cleared. Now, in fairness, it’s likely that something happens to solve this problem. Maybe the Cardinals offer Wilking Rodriguez back to the Yankees, though the club really seems high on him and he’s not been terrible this spring. It could be they waive someone like Guillermo Zuniga and hope he clears waivers, even though they just signed him in the offseason. Maybe a trade frees up a spot.
Lots of maybes, but as it stands right now there isn’t a slam dunk move that gets him on the roster. The Cardinals aren’t one to let pitching go if they don’t have to and right now the only tentative players on the 40-man are arms. Unless you aren’t sold on Moises Gomez, the minor league home run leader. Which is another name to add to the mix above with the added benefit of having that key spot.There’s no shame in sending him down. Jordan Walker isn’t even 21 yet. He’s never played at AAA. You remember when Shelby Miller had a great minor league season in 2011 and came to camp poised to be the fifth starter in 2012? He had a rough spring and went to AAA where he bombed, meaning that he made his major league debut in September instead of May.
It doesn’t hurt to find out what a guy can do at the lower level. If he rakes for two months in Memphis, that’s more impressive than a good six days in Jupiter. If Walker had already had a season there as good as some of his other minor league work, then there’s more impetus to get him to the bigs. If he’d already had that, of course, there’d probably been a trade this offseason to free up a spot.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s great to see what Walker is doing and I hope he continues it all spring long. It’s fun and I don’t want to pour cold water on things at all. I just don’t want to get too excited about a good week. Tony LaRussa said that one of his mentors told him to never fall in love or out of love with a player in spring training. It’s sound advice, even for one that looks as incredible as Walker.
I’ve made most of these points on the various shows lately, so if you are listeners it may feel like a repeat. However I needed to write something to make sure I could still do it.
If you haven’t listened, Ben Cerutti joined me on Meet Me at Musial this week and David Jones is still filling in for Tara on Gateway to Baseball Heaven. I was also on the Rauh Report this weekend as part of their preseason look at the various teams. It’s here on YouTube if you can stand looking at this ugly mug and you can find it on Spotify if you are sane.
Spoiler alert if you’ve not watched the latest installments from a galaxy far, far away.
The first episode of the third season of The Mandalorian is out and it was a solid episode. It felt very much like it was setting up the various dominos for this season instead of diving right into the action. Mando running into the pirates, making connections with the Armorer and that sect, visiting Bo-Katan all felt like starting points to threads that will pay off later in the season. So a good episode, if not a breathtaking one.
Honestly, the show that had the most impact to storylines this week probably was the most recent episode of The Bad Batch. Bringing back the Zillo Beast from The Clone Wars was one thing (my son, who is weeks from graduation, about lost it with the beast reveal, as he’s loved that thing since it made its debut) but seeing more of the cloning operation, which likely ties into how Palpatine returned as well as the setup of The Mandalorian (remember, the doctor that did the experiments on Grogu wears the same outfit that the lab people do in this episode), has the chance to really have far-reaching effects. I’ve felt that Bad Batch has been a little too on its own, a little too episodic with no connections to a pivotal time in Galactic history. If this is a start to a thread they are going to follow, that evaluation will need to change.
Also, for those that are interested, I’m writing daily devotionals marrying Christianity and Star Wars throughout Lent over here.