The Life of a Closer
A rough run for Ryan Helsley is unfortunately not uncommon.
Jason Isringhausen came over to the Cardinals in 2002. He had a good run, leading the league in saves in 2004 as the club won 105 games, but his best season statistically possibly was 2005. He was an All-Star, he put up an even 2.0 bWAR, he had 39 saves. While there were a couple of warning signs (increased walks, decreased strikeouts) he was getting the job done.
It was the very next year that Izzy got the reputation as a tight-walker. A 1.457 WHIP, an ERA over 3.50, and almost six walks per nine innings. A lot of that was due to hip problems, which is why Adam Wainwright has some amazing postseason highlights, and he rebounded a little in 2007 before falling apart in 2008 and then bouncing around for the end of his career.
Trevor Rosenthal made his Cardinal debut in 2012. He had a solid few years then peaked in 2015, when he was an All-Star, got MVP votes, and saved 48 games for a team that won 100. He posted 2.6 bWAR that season.
The next year, he posted 0.0 bWAR. He had a WHIP close to 2, an ERA around 4.50, and while he improved enough in 2017 to reclaim the closer job for a while, he got injured and never threw again for the Cardinals.
Which means what’s happening now with Ryan Helsley seems very familiar.
Helsley has had a really remarkable run as a reliever. Anytime you can get three above-average seasons from that kind of pitcher, you have to feel a bit lucky. Relievers have such a short shelf life, but Helsley has made two All-Star games in the past three years as well as getting Cy Young votes in 2022 and 2024. He ran into some injuries in 2023 (and, obviously, a lot fewer opportunities) or he might have had three in a row on both of those criteria.
Depending on your metric, 2024 might have been his best year. He had his highest bWAR (2.9 vs. 2.8 in 2022) and led the league in saves and games finished. Other metrics would lean toward 2022, though he didn’t start that year as the full-time closer, eventually taking the spot from Giovanny Gallegos, another reliever that might fit this mold we are talking about.
Let’s be clear that Helsley hasn’t fallen off a cliff or anything. He’s still a fairly reliable closer that had just two blown saves before the month of June. He’s not been as dominant—as we noted in an earlier post, he’s had very few perfect outings—but he’s usually gotten the job done.
It’s safe to say, though, that he has entered into the Izzy/Rosie phase of causing white knuckles and bitten nails. In Derrick Goold’s story from today, Oli Marmol talks about the difference between Helsley after the first three weeks of the season.
Through April 16: 3 saves in 4 chances, 9 K/6 BB in 7 IP. ERA 2.57, FIP 3.07.
April 16-May 31: 10 saves in 11 chances, 14 K/5 BB in 14 IP. ERA 3.21, FIP 4.21
While there’s much more that goes into this than just some basic stats, on the face of it there’s not been a ton of difference in that span. The walks were down but he allowed a hit per inning in the last span, just five in the first. The article indicates some discomfort coming out of spring, some mechanics that needed to be tinkered with. It’s possible that isn’t completely perfect yet.
When you look at his Baseball Savant page, there’s some blue that you don’t want to see. His walk rate is in the 17th percentile and his hard hit percentage and average exit velocity are pretty frigid as well, though some of that is the small number of balls actually hit off of him. There’s still plenty of red, just not as much dark red as we’re used to seeing.
I’m just looking at the numbers with a very unexpert eye, but it is notable that his fastball is being clipped at a .426 average right now. Goold’s article talked about the fastball not working well in the early parts of the year so maybe that’s somewhat skewed, but it’s also notable that the slider has been so effective. Yet unlike last year, when he threw the slider more than anything else, the fastball has been used (slightly) more.
I imagine that we’re just in a dip of a season with these three consecutive blown saves. The one against the Royals wasn’t great, but the first hit came on a pitch outside of the strike zone and the second was just a bouncing ball that got through the infield. You could argue maybe a different approach but it wasn’t that he got pounded around. The one against the Dodgers was real fluky—if Shohei Ohtani’s ball doesn’t hit the bag, there’s probably two outs and nobody on and Helsley gets the job done.
We’ve argued a lot that the Cards should have moved him this winter when his value was highest. (Heck, I argued they should have traded him at last year’s deadline.) From what I’ve been told, even Helsley thought he wouldn’t start the season in St. Louis. Would the Cardinals be in the same position if JoJo Romero or Phil Maton was your regular closer? Probably not, especially given Romero’s early season troubles. So if you are trying to win this year, keeping him was a good move. We’ll have to wait to see if it’s a good move long-term.
Bullpens are going to bullpen and it’s just frustrating that it came after such an invigorating comeback. John Mozeliak talked this weekend about this team being “gritty” in the fact that they are always battling, always trying to get a win. They’ve rallied many times this year but last night’s might have been the most unexpected. A really quiet night, then a walk from the struggling Victor Scott II, a single from my main man Masyn Winn, an RBI single down the line for Willson Contreras, and then an absolute missile from Ivan Herrera.
This offense hasn’t typically been a quick strike version, more of a relentless drumbeat. That beat has gotten a little softer of late, though. Scott is 8-for-58 with 23 strikeouts since May 16 (and it probably should be noted that if he doesn’t misplay Alejandro Kirk’s deep fly into a homer, things might have been different last night). Lars Nootbaar is slashing .200/.275/.271 in the same span and, as a leadoff hitter, that’s setting a rough tone. No matter how he hits, Jordan Walker’s return will be an upgrade on Ryan Vilade, who will be designated for assignment when Walker returns.
Thankfully, unlike past years, there are people to pick up the slack. Brendan Donovan is keeping up his pace, Contreras and Herrera have been regular contributors, and Winn has continued to produce. It would be nice to have a few more cylinders clicking, especially when you aren’t absolutely sure what you’ll get out of the starting staff.
For those interested, our summer set of Star Wars devotionals have started up. We’re in the trash compactor in A New Hope and we’ll see how far we get between now and mid-October. Running on Tuesdays and Fridays if I can stay ahead of things.
It’s hard to believe that the High Republic publishing project that Star Wars has been running for a few years is coming to an end. The last book comes out next week and I’m quite interested in seeing how it all wraps. I have started the new book set a little before The Acolyte featuring Vernestra Rwoh and Indara, but I’m not terribly far into it yet.
Great work, as usual. Last night, I thought the Cards had it won in the ninth with Helsley and a one-run lead. I should have known better.
He seems to be throwing a lot of what I hear called "non-competitive pitches."
Great article! I started working on a series for October entitled “Closers in the Hands of an Angry God” because basically from Eckersley to Helsley every closer was booed off the field. Brantley, Bottalico, Izzy, Franklin, Boggs, Mujica…the one exception may be Jason Motte.