The 40-Man Itch
Trying to guess how the offseason will go down in relation to the roster
As the playoffs come closer and closer to being done, the baseball winter season gets closer and closer to kicking off. We talked last time about how the 40-man roster was going to be an interesting thing to watch this offseason. Now I want to get into the actual nuts and bolts of what may happen.
Allen and I will probably go over this in the next Meet Me at Musial, so if you have any ideas on anything here, feel free to drop them in the comment section. I’m hopeful that having some of this written out will keep us from spending too long on things that aren’t really that much of an issue.
Let’s start the clock with where are at now: 40.
The first things are the easiest. Currently on the roster are Adam Wainwright and Drew VerHagen. Wainwright, as we all know, is retiring and should file the appropriate paperwork right after the World Series. VerHagen was a gamble that didn’t pan out for the front office and is now a free agent. While you can’t guarantee that the club doesn’t find a way to bring him back, he’ll file for free agency and be, at least temporarily (and likely permanently) off the roster. That gets us to 38.
The next step is a bit trickier. As you know, the 60-day IL ceases to exist when there is not an active season going on. Which means that shortly after the World Series, the Cardinals will have to add Dylan Carlson, Brandon Donovan, Packy Naughton, Wilking Rodriguez, and Guillermo Zuniga back to the forty. However, as noted, there aren’t five spots available. There are two. Which means at least three cuts have to be made.
Carlson and Donovan are locks to be added back. Even if the Cardinals plan to trade Carlson, he’d have to be restored before they could and it’s not like there aren’t plenty of options to get him there. I believe the Cardinals would want to add all three of the pitchers as well. Rodriguez is an interesting situation, as the Cardinals could think that keeping him on the 26-man next year isn’t worth it and offer him back to the Yankees, but they’ve been pretty motivated to acquire him so I think he sticks. In other years, either Naughton or Zuniga might have been potential casualties. The usage of Zuniga last year does make me wonder exactly what they think of him, but it doesn’t seem likely they’d just bail on that power arm. Naughton has proven worth to the club in the past and I think they hold on to the Patron Pitcher.
That’s all well and good, you say, but where are the cuts coming from? There’s a number of options, but I’ll say these slots are cleared by releasing Jacob Barnes, Andrew Suarez, and Irving Lopez. That brings us back to a full 40.
The next deadline is November 15. That’s the day that players that are eligible for the Rule 5 draft have to be protected on the 40-man roster. However, the Cardinals have also said that they want to be aggressive in the free agent market. With the GM meetings November 7-9, could they need a open spot or two that early?
Let’s cover all those bases at once. I think there are two more spots that are easy to clear. Juinel Querecuto and Michael Siani played a part in making sure the Cardinals actually got to the end of the season but it’d be stunning if they were still around come Jupiter unless they re-sign with a minor league deal. Let’s drop those two off, which gets us to 38.
I also think that Moises Gomez is likely headed out the door. The fact that the Cardinals never promoted him even when he was on the 40-man roster is pretty telling. I know that Gomez has shown significant power over the last two seasons but the fact that they brought Siani, a non-prospect, up instead tells me that they aren’t that interested in Gomez. I say he drops off and we’re at 37.
The next few are a little harder and I think most have cases for staying as well as going.
Casey Lawrence proved to be a semi-useful part of the bullpen. He wasn’t necessarily good, mind you, but he kept the team in some games and ate innings in others. It’s not a skill set that usually gets kept, though, but one that is found on the waiver wires in June. We’ll remove him.
James Naile is 30 and had an ERA just under 9 in his 15 major league innings this season. He’s still a controllable arm but his age works against him. I think he’s gone.
Connor Thomas is just 25 but he’s had ERAs over 5 the last two years at Memphis. It’s possible slots in that rotation are going to be at a premium so I think they probably let him move on, though he’s one I could see them hanging on to depending on how much roster flexibility they need.
I was going to put Kyle Leahy on here but he’s only had the one season at Memphis and he’s still young enough that I think he stays for depth. It’s possible that he goes and Thomas stays or some other combination but right now I’ll keep him.
That brings us to 34. I have a couple of others but I’ll hold them to later.
Now there’s room for the Cardinals to put the players they need to protect from the Rule 5 draft on the roster. If you haven’t, I suggest going and listening to Kyle Reis on the last Musial talk about who gets protected why and various things like that. It definitely changed my thinking. I thought there might be 5-6 that needed to be kept but instead I’ve limited it to three.
Kyle may be right that the club doesn’t need to protect Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein, but I also think that the PR hit that would ensue even if they weren’t selected by another team isn’t something St. Louis is looking for right now. Both of those guys have a reasonable chance of seeing Busch Stadium next year anyway, even if as an emergency starter, so adding them is no real issue.
I also think they keep Ian Bedell. Bedell’s had injuries and there’s a good chance he would get through the Rule 5 unscathed but I also think there’s a reasonable chance someone like Detroit grabs him up for a spot in the bullpen.
I was going to add Pedro Pages here because of his steps in Springfield this season and a backup catcher could be a pretty easy place for a team to hide a Rule 5, but Kyle and the fact that they left him open last year made me reconsider. I could still see it if they have plans with either Andrew Knizner or Ivan Herrera, though.
That gets us back up to 37. Three spots for this winter? That may not be enough.
I think there are two more players that might find themselves released into the wild this winter. There's a slim chance one or both could find themselves thrown into a trade but it doesn’t feel like they will be here when the club roles into Jupiter.
The first is Juan Yepez. The last time the Cardinals had a postseason lead, it was provided by Yepez. Yet the club seems to have no real confidence in him, even as the outfield situation has been in flux. He only received 60 major league at bats this season, 16 less than Taylor Motter. He wasn’t as productive in Memphis as he has been in the past and it is fair to wonder if he was upset or slightly unfocused by the usage. He’ll probably go somewhere and have a nice couple of years but I think the club moves on from him this winter, freeing up a spot.
I continue to go back and forth on the second. On the one hand, the Cardinals never throw away pitching and they saw this year what happens when the depth of arms gets depleted. So if they have a pitcher that is still under control, who is in his last year of arbitration but shouldn’t break the bank, maybe as much as $4 million, it’s very tempting to keep him around.
On the other hand, this is Dakota Hudson we are talking about. If the Cardinals are looking for swing-and-miss, it’s not here. The walk rates have been bad since the minor leagues. The surface numbers were looking good for a while but by the end the underlying numbers weren’t the only thing making the case that it was time to move on. I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept him, but I say they let him go, cutting the number to 35.
Thirty-five should be a good number for the wheeling-and-dealing that we expect from this offseason. You figure two of those spaces are taken up by free agent starters that are signed and a couple maybe filled by reliever selections. I do think that Alec Burleson and Tyler O’Neill are likely to be traded this winter, especially if they bring in a young, cost-controlled starter via trade. Those probably wash out when you are talking about 40-man slots, though.
Again, that’s all a lot of guesswork. It’s possible they will release more players if they have plans for more slots (or cut them if the need arises). If nothing else, though, this is what I’ll be watching for this winter, which promises to be dynamic.
I would think that they likely keep dak and yepez until they absolutely need a spot. They may clear the 3, sign some FAs, make some trades, and only then if they need a spot do they release them.