Old Friends Not Forgotten

Two former Cardinals return to Busch while the focus is on another

Who could have imagined that there was anything that could overshadow the first time Nolan Arenado got to face the Rockies? I’m not sure anything short of what happened on Thursday would have done it and there’s a good chance we’ll be talking about Albert Pujols more than what Jeff Bridich wrought.

I’ve already written about Pujols this morning, however, so let’s go look forward, not back. The last place Rockies meet the first place Cardinals. Will we be able to use the same descriptors when they part?

The Last Time We Met….

Obviously things were a lot different back in 2019 when these two teams last saw each other. They tangled in Colorado September 10-12 of that year and the Cards dropped the first two before salvaging the finale. Both of the first two games were rare 2-1 scores in Coors Field, which highlighted both the strong pitching of that team that was in process of winning the NL Central and an offense that would famously not show up for the NLCS.

Game 1 saw Michael Wacha allow two runs in four innings but lose to Chi Chi Gonzalez and his one run over six. Those two runs? Off of a Nolan Arenado home run, of course. The second game was a Dakota Hudson special (two runs, six innings, seven strikeouts, five walks) and he was outdueled by Antonio Senzatela. The Cardinal win was an explosion of offense as the Redbirds hit five home runs (Dexter Fowler and Kolten Wong led off the game with back-to-back shots, then Rangel Ravelo, Marcell Ozuna, and Harrison Bader joined in the fun) in route to a 10-3 victory.

Interestingly, the Rockies had come to Busch about a week or two before that for a four game set. The Cardinals swept them.

The Opponent

It’s not been a great year for the Rockies. Besides the whole Arenado trade, a trade that seemingly finally (and eventually) sent Mr. Bridich packing, the club is 12-19 and already six games out of first place. They are 9-15 against teams over .500 and that includes their current two game winning streak which came at the expense of the division-leading Giants.

You’d guess that the calling card of Colorado would be their offense and maybe it is in relation to the pitching staff, but it’s not an offense that really stands out right now. The club is 11th in the majors (6th) in the National League in OPS, which has them a little ahead of St. Louis (.720 to .701). They’ve hit less homers than the Cardinals have, surprisingly. Ryan McMahon has been good (.265, 8 homers) and Trevor Story is still Trevor Story, but these aren’t the Blake Street Bombers it doesn’t appear.

Pitching is….about what you’d expect. They are last in the league in ERA, last in the league in WHIP, and opponents are hitting .268 against them. What’s scary is that some of those numbers are better at Coors than on the road.

The Mound Men

Friday: Austin Gomber (2-3, 5.90 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 4.90 xERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (5-0, 3.41 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 4.23 xERA)

Saturday: Chi Chi Gonzalez (1-0, 4.38 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 6.37 xERA) vs. Carlos Martinez (2-4, 3.72 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 5.26 xERA)

Sunday: German Marquez (1-3, 6.21 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 4.29 xERA) vs. Adam Wainwright (1-3, 4.72 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 3.64 xERA)

Gomber, of course, is very familiar to us given that he was wearing the Cardinal red up until January. While that character flaw of not hitting a lefty they’ve not seen before hasn’t been as prevalent this season as it has in the past, there’s still a very good chance this is a pitcher’s duel. Gomber will probably have a lot of motivation against his former organization and, unless he gets too hyped and out of control, probably will show his best stuff. He gave up four runs (just two earned) in six innings against the Diamondbacks in Coors Field in his last start.

We mentioned Gonzalez above, having pitched in the last series between these two. He has only one other game against the Cardinals, where he gave up five runs in 4.1 innings in that sweep also mentioned. Last time out he allowed four runs in 4.2 innings against Arizona.

Marquez has been the Rockies’ best pitcher for the last few years but has had some missteps in 2021. Before his last two starts, he had a 3.45 ERA and was cruising along, but then he allowed four runs in four innings against the Giants in San Francisco and then was demolished by the D-Backs, allowing eight runs in just 2/3rds of a frame. Marquez’s last game against the Cards was in that four game sweep in 2019, where he allowed four runs in six innings. It was also his last start of the season, going on the IL for arm inflammation afterwards.

The Hot Seat

After yesterday’s game, you could probably put a number of Cardinal pitchers in this spot, but I think the warmest seat has to go to Tyler Webb. As I wrote in the recap post this morning, this is the worst stretch of games for Webb since he became a Cardinal in 2018. His command is terrible and while Mike Shildt is being proactive about getting him out of games, he leaves enough of a mess it’s almost impossible to clean it up. While there’s no obvious replacement for him now, there will come a point the organization has no choice but to move on if this continues.

Dispatches From The Front

Kevin Henry, author at Rox Pile, was kind enough to shoot off a few thoughts about the state of the team he covers.

“At 12-19, there are more things going wrong for the Rockies than right, but there have been some bright spots, including Raimel Tapia's .312 batting average and settling in as the leadoff guy. Ryan McMahon has done a solid job defensive and at the plate for the Rockies, filling in nicely at third base in Nolan Arenado's absence. His eight homers lead the team and he's emerged as the team's leading offensive threat as Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon have each scuffled during certain periods to start the season.

“On the not-so-great side, the bullpen has had its share of issues, including closer Daniel Bard, who enters the Cardinals series with an 8.10 ERA and has been scored upon in four of his last five outings. He hasn't worked a clean appearance since April 8. German Marquez, the team's opening day starter, has also struggled lately, watching his ERA rise to 6.21 as batters are hitting .273 against him.”

Assorted Crudités

Matt Carpenter still only has one hit that left the infield but not the yard. His strikeout rate is still at 31.3% and his walk rate is at 12.5%. If he could just walk a little more and strike out a little less, he’d be a much better bench option. Or he could hit three-run homers all the time. That’s fine too.

Tyler O’Neill has raised his xwOBA 192 points over the past 50 plate appearances, an increase that is fourth most in baseball. Since his return from the injured list he’s slashing .318/.382/.636. He did go hitless in the last two games of the Mets series (that he played—he got a day off Thursday) so hopefully we aren’t seeing the start of the down slope of the roller coaster.

Adam Wainwright is 10-1 in 15 career outings (11 starts) against the Rockies. His ERA against them is 1.56. That’s his third best mark against a team, trailing only the Rangers (1.35, but just one start) and Houston (1.48 ERA in 22 games).

While most of the focus is on Gomber, Matt Adams also comes back to Busch this weekend. The Slippery Rock grad is more of a bench bat and has already returned to Busch many times, including as a Cardinal, since his first departure, but he’ll still get a nice ovation.

Random Links

I’ve not exactly moved quickly on anything, so I’m still listening to the same podcast episode and reading the same Star Wars book. In lieu of that, a quick thought or two about the premiere of The Bad Batch.

1) Did not expect the Caleb Dume cameo. Now I need to reread the Kanan comic book and see if they can reconcile. I’d like Disney to at least work with their own canon, given there’s so little of it right now.

2) Also didn’t see the heel turn coming before the show started. I wouldn’t have expected that they’d set up one of their own as the recurring antagonist, though I’m sure there’s a chance of redemption later on down the line.

3) Is Omega Force-sensitive? Was this the Kaminoans trying to create Force clones? LUUKE SKYWALKER CONFIRMED. (Old Thrawn trilogy joke.)

4) It definitely feels like this could be Clone Wars Season 8 and that’s not a bad thing. It’s off to a much better start than Resistance had (and, while it’s a little disappointing the latter only got two episodes, it never did reach very high).