Mediocrity in Action

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.

Is it better, at least for the mental health of the fanbase, if a team is really bad versus the Star-Lord school of results? Is it easier to resign yourself to “this team isn’t very good” than to get teased by the possibilities that the team is at least somewhat good?

Probably not for Cardinals fans, because they aren’t used to really bad teams. They’ve not finished last in the division since 1990 and before that, you have to go back to the early part of the 1900s. They’ve not finished under .500 since 2007, which is an eternity in modern baseball. So seeing them in the range of the Pirates, the Diamondbacks, the Tigers would be a tough pill to swallow.

That said, being kinda good, kinda not isn’t real great for the psyche either. St. Louis reached eight games over .500 first on May 11. Since then, they are (obviously, given their even record) eight games under. That means they’ve played like a 63 win team for more than a month. That IS in the range of the Pirates, the Diamondbacks, the Tigers.

The Cardinals have done a great job beating up teams below sea level. All but nine of their wins this season have come against these sort of clubs, clubs that good teams are supposed to defeat. However, that doesn’t mean that only good teams beat them. On the island of misfit toys, the Cardinals are the ones with the cosmetic flaws. They can rule over the rest, but no kid is going to want to take them home.

There’s been a lot made of the fact that, starting with this series today, the Cardinals play 13 in a row against cellar dwellers or teams that are close to the cellar. I could easily see the Redbirds taking 10 of those games but it would still tell us nothing about this team. It might, depending on how the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds do in the same span, push them closer to the top of the division. It would not mean that they are suddenly good.

It’ll be easy for us as fans to start believing that they are “clicking”, that they’ve figured something out, that the pitching is getting on a roll, etc. The actual test will be right before the All-Star Break, when they play the (currently) NL West-leading Giants. If they can use the momentum from these bad teams to beat a good one, then we’ll talk.

The Last Time We Met…..

For all the October history that these two teams have, their last meetings have been a little more mundane. COVID affected both scheduled matchups of these two teams and one series was not made up, meaning that the Cardinals and Tigers both had 58-game seasons last year instead of 60.

The other was made up as a doubleheader on September 10 last season, meaning the two teams played 14 innings total against each other instead of the 36 planned. It’s hard to sweep a doubleheader, especially when you are a middling team as the Cardinals were last year as well. Game 1 went very well for St. Louis, as they posted six runs off of starter Tarik Skubal in two-plus innings and continued to put up runs in route to a 12-2 win. The Cardinals hit five home runs in the game, which was at Busch surprisingly, and Jack Flaherty pitched five innings for the win.

The nightcap went much differently. The Cards were on the verge of the sweep, putting up a 3-1 lead going into the ninth. Austin Gomber went three innings in what amounted to a bullpen game and Alex Reyes, Genesis Cabrera, and John Gant kept St. Louis out in front. Tommy Edman homered and Matt Carpenter drove in two with two hits, so everything looked awesome. Unfortunately, it was one of those rare nights when Giovanny Gallegos didn’t have it. Gallegos walked the first man and gave up singles to the next two, cutting the lead to 3-2. Ryan Helsley took over and, after intentionally passing Miguel Cabrera, gave up a two-run single that gave the Tigers the lead and, after a double play, a two run homer that cemented the game.

The last time St. Louis was in Detroit was September of 2018, where they lost the first two games in walk-off fashion before taking the finale in a game started by John Gant where he struck out six and walked just one. Those were the days.

The Opponent

The Tigers are bad, which is not exactly a surprise. They’ve finished within 10 games of first only once since the last time they won the division in 2014. If they were able to maintain their current .417 winning percentage, it’d be the best one they’ve had since 2016, which also happens to be the last time they were over .500. Currently, they are one game worse than Minnesota and 13 back of the White Sox, bringing up the rear in the AL Central.

Offensively, they are similar to the Cardinals. Both teams have a .677 OPS on the season, with the Cards just a slight bit better. Both have 77 home runs. The Tigers have 20 fewer doubles but nine more triples. Eight runs is all that separates them in that category. Jonathan Schoop leads the team with 13 home runs and an .801 OPS.

There’s a bit more of a gap in the pitching of the two teams, thankfully, though it’s not necessarily huge. Detroit carries a 4.58 ERA into this series, good for 21st in baseball. (The Cardinals, at 4.23, are 17th.) Detroit also has the worse WHIP (1.38 to 1.34) and batters hit .251 against them, compared to .228 against the Cardinal staff. Of course, the Tigers don’t walk nearly as many as St. Louis, though they are seventh overall in baseball.

The Mound Men

Tuesday: Johan Oviedo (0-2, 4.58 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 5.00 xERA) vs. Tarik Skubel (4-7, 4.26 ERA, 5.36 FIP, 5.10 xERA)

Wednesday: John Gant (4-5, 3.50 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 6.00 xERA) vs. Matt Manning (0-1, 3.60 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 4.19 xERA)

—xERA courtesy of FanGraphs

Skubel, as noted above, didn’t have a great outing against St. Louis in his only time facing them. This year, though, he’s done a pretty good job of hanging around the quality start area, usually pitching five innings but occasionally hitting six. The last two times out, against the White Sox and the Royals, he’s allowed three earned runs in six innings (he allowed an unearned one against Chicago as well). 81 strikeouts in 66 innings (27.8% K rate) means there will probably be some breezes created. It’s an interesting matchup with Oviedo, who might be that sort of pitcher in another year or two.

Manning has only one major league appearance under his belt, a five inning start against the Angels last time out where he gave up two runs, struck out three, and walked two in five innings of work. Manning was the Tigers’s first round pick in the 2016 draft and though he scuffled some at AAA this season (8.07 ERA in seven starts, four of which he allowed four runs or more) he got the call and as a pitcher the Cardinals haven’t seen will probably be dangerous. As for Gant, regression ain’t no joke.

The Hot Seat

Being gone for a week, I don’t know that I have a real good pulse on who is drawing most of the ire of the fanbase. That said, if there were any other options in the rotation right now, I do wonder if the Cardinals would be more open to moving John Gant out of it and into the bullpen, figuring they’ve pushed their luck far enough. However, with no options currently on the horizon, they don’t have a lot of choice but to keep him out there and hope that he can get back to stranding runners.

Assorted Crudités

We noted last time that Paul DeJong had minimal time in Memphis for his rehab. Since his return, he’s 3-32 with 11 strikeouts, though he does have a home run. Of course, as I’ve said on both shows this week, this may just be who Paul DeJong is. Only his rookie year did he have an OPS+ that was above average. Even when he had 30 doubles and 30 homers in 2019, he was right at 100 in that category. Hopefully he can turn it around somewhat—the last two years have been really bad, of course, and he is likely better than that—but perhaps the idea that shortstop was solved for the long term was a little premature.

The leadoff spot isn’t as locked down either. Since May 12, that span we mentioned above, Tommy Edman is hitting .241/.270/.366. Which could be serviceable if it wasn’t for the fact he’s supposed to be getting on base for other folks to drive him in. If you limit the sample to June (and this counts his 3-4 day in the first game on Sunday), it’s .225/.225/.324—he has not walked one time in 16 games. Given the offensive malaise, letting someone like Dylan Carlson take the top spot isn’t a terrible idea.

Starling Marte has a .933 OPS, is on a last place Marlins team, and will be a free agent at the end of the year. I’m sure that the market will be heating up around him but I’d really like to see the Cardinals get someone like that to shore up the offense. You could let Carlson lead off, shift Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado back to 2-3, have Tyler O’Neill hit cleanup, let Marte hit fifth, then finish out with Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong/Edmundo Sosa, and Tommy Edman. That feels like a much more solid structure than what they have currently. (All that is assuming the Instagram video from his feed last night can be explained away, which might be a big if. I seriously hate mice but that’s not a good way to deal with them.)

Random Links

Currently listening to: Cardinals Off Day 11: Sticky Balls. I was able to get through a few podcasts on my journey, though not quite as many as I thought I would. It was nice to share at least some of the road with my favorite voices, though. If you are reading this and doing a podcast, keep up the good work!

Currently reading: I haven’t read much since I got back, but I did get through a few things on the trip. I finished up The First American: The Life and Times of Benjamin Franklin, for instance. Last year, after watching Hamilton when it came out on Disney+, it got me started on a Founding Fathers kick. I’ve purchased and downloaded a lot of books, but I’ve only gotten finished with Ron Chernow’s Washington: A Life and this one, though I also reread David McCullough’s 1776 in the past year, a book I already had in my library. I’m not sure what I’ll start next, either McCullough’s John Adams or Chernow’s Alexander Hamilton.

I also read Hunting Four Horsemen by Jim Geraghty. I enjoy Geraghty’s political writing and his move into spy thriller has gone well. This is the second in the series and they are breezy reads with real-world inspirations and they are full of pop culture references, occasionally too many in my opinion.

Currently watching: I’ve been recently rewatching Star Wars: Rebels and got a few episodes done on the trip (thanks to being able to download them to my phone). I’m about mid-Season 3 and remembering just how good at was and how well it was able to put a thread down for a bit, then take it back up later on.

Personal links: You can find the newest Meet Me at Musial here, the return of Tara Wellman to Gateway to Baseball Heaven here, and if you are interested in playing our little Cardinal Six game, you can participate in that here.