Looking At This Year's #CardsHOF Ballot

General thoughts and observations about the balloting process

This morning, the Cardinals dropped their annual Hall of Fame ballot. I imagine it was in the works anyway, given that last year’s ballot dropped on March 1. That was late last year—other years have been in January or February—but I think we are seeing the evolution of the Hall of Fame process. The fact that it slightly distracts from the lack of baseball is probably a bonus.

Two years ago, I wrote about how the ballot’s history has looked and some of the quirks of the process. With another couple of years of data, let’s revisit this idea and see if it tells us anything.

First off, it seems to me that the Cardinals have figured out that the Hall of Fame was starting to get too big. The obvious candidates—and some not-so-obvious—have been elected. You can tell there’s been a focus on slowing this down over the past few years.

The first three years (2014-2016), there were eight players on the ballot. The next four years (save 2019, which had just six) there were seven. In 2021 and now 2022, though, only five are on the list. That also coincides with the change in election, with only one player being selected instead of two.

I noted before 2020 that 50% of the players elected had come on their first ballot appearance. With Tom Herr getting in on his first shot in 2020 but John Tudor (his third in 2020) and Keith Hernandez (eighth in 2021) not, that percentage has slightly dropped. However, with Matt Holliday on the ballot this year, there’s a real good chance it goes back up to 50/50.

Hernandez, of course, was the player that waited the longest to get in. This year’s list is split between new players (Holliday, George Hendrick) and getting-old-on-the-vine folks. This is Steve Carlton’s fifth year (‘15, ‘17, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22) and I’m honestly still surprised he hasn’t been the selection of the red ribbon committee by now. (A committee, as I continue to note for anyone listening, I am available to be a part of!) Matt Morris and Edgar Renteria have both been on the ballot for seven years, with Morris missing 2017 and 2018 while Renteria not making the original ballot or 2018. That means one of them (assuming they make the ballot next year) will tie Hernandez for the longest drought.

What’s interesting also to me is to see players drop off even when they weren’t elected. We’ve noted the gaps in the balloting for the above players, but Lee Smith, who is in Cooperstown now, was on the ballot in ‘17, ‘20, and ‘21, but won’t be part of the limited ballot this season. I imagine there’s got to be a desire for new blood plus not to make the ballot too focused on one era. Then again, Smith and Hendrick don’t really overlap anyone else on here. Perhaps there’s a little known codicil that says there must be at least one player from the 1980s on every ballot.

Since they give this over to the fans to vote on (which I think is a good thing on the whole), there’s little doubt that Matt Holliday is going to get the nod here. The generation that is on the internet regularly enough to vote well remembers Holliday’s tenure in St. Louis and there’s no doubt it’s Cards HOF worthy. I do feel bad for Morris and Renteria, two guys that I would like to see make the Hall and guys that this sort of honor is designed for. They just keep running up against huge fan favorites and wind up getting overshadowed. Next year doesn’t look any better for them. If David Freese isn’t the nominee, I’d be stunned.

Hopefully this summer will see a normal Hall of Fame ceremony. Hopefully there will also be a game that day as well!