Let's Not Make a Deal

The arbitration offering deadline was this week and there are a lot of trials coming

Arbitration is always an interesting time. The deadline to agree comes in a spot where there’s less to talk about while the actual trials happen in spring training, somewhat overshadowed by players returning to the back fields. We probably read too much into things but that’s our job as fans, really. So let’s look at who settled, who didn’t, and wildly speculate about what it all means.

The Cards came to terms with three people. The big one, of course, was Ryan Helsey, who came to terms on an $8.2 million contract. I don’t think anyone thought that Helsley would see the inside of a courtroom (or wherever they actually hold these hearings). The Cards wouldn’t have much of a case against him after his 2024 season. Maybe his past health history would come into play but I can’t imagine that would sway the arbitrator after a fully healthy 2024. It also gives Helsley a definitive salary, so if the Cards do wind up pivoting to trade him, that could help the cause. Unlikely, but you never know.

The club also settled with two other relievers, JoJo Romero and John King. Romero was floated as a possible trade option earlier in the winter by a couple of places but it doesn’t seem like that’s at all in the plans for the Cards. He got $2.2 million. King is a solid but replaceable part and probably didn’t put up a large fuss when discussing things with the Cardinals. He got $1.6 million. If nothing else, the bullpen should be taken care of, even though John Mozeliak mentioned they might be looking for a reliever.

Now let’s talk about the three people that they didn’t settle with. Unlike these three, they could be significant parts not only of 2025 but years beyond.

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The Brendan Donovan saga, according to John Denton:

Nobody else seemed to have anything about a Donovan extension, so take all of that for what it’s worth. An extension for anyone would have been a little difficult, given how it would have required both Mozeliak and Chaim Bloom to be involved. It’s not terribly surprising that Mo wants to leave the decks as clear as possible before Bloom takes over next year.

(What really will be interesting is the trade deadline in July if the Cardinals are, as some expect, out of the running. Does Bloom, even though he’s heading up player development this year, run that from behind the curtain?)

In fairness to John, a Donovan extension does make a lot of sense in some regards. He’s been a valuable part of the club, he’s got positional flexibility and can play almost all of them well, and he’s started to fill in the leadership gap on the team (as discussed with Jeff Jones on the first Musial of the year). All that said, he’s also not one that seems to worry you when you go to arbitration. He’s not a big slugger or a key pitcher. He asked for $450,000 more than the Cardinals wanted to pay him.

Nootbaar has shown a lot of potential but he’s also not shown a propensity for health. His season last year was solid but not otherworldly, in part because he only played 109 games, which is actually the second highest total he has had since making the big leagues. The jury is still somewhat out on what his career is going to look like. He asked for $500,000 more than the Cardinals filed for.

Pallante had a bit of a breakout last year, establishing himself as a solid rotation option. If the season started today, he’d likely be the third best arm in the rotation and you could argue he might surpass Erick Fedde for second. With the value of pitching, it’s a little surprising that the club didn’t go ahead and settle with him, especially since the difference between the two was $175,000.

The Cardinals have gone more to the “file and trial” method, but it also seems very hard for me to believe that they don’t settle with at least Pallante before a hearing. The difference is small and I don’t think they are in a great place to win that case. If they don’t, I think it’s somewhat telling.

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Perhaps it’s notable, perhaps it’s not, but if the Cardinals had been willing to spend $1.15 million more, they could have called it a day.

I get that there are a lot more considerations that go into all of this than just the financial difference. It sets the market for other players or at least gives them data for their own arbitration hearings, for example, and other teams aren’t always fond of that. It’s probably not fair to say, “Hey, just give Pallante another couple hundred thousand” with other ramifications that we don’t always know about.

That said, it’s basically a million dollars in an offseason where you have offloaded $63 million or so. Currently Roster Resource, who is using the midpoints on these three cases as it determines its total, has the Cards about $80 million from the first luxury tax threshold. We talked last time about all the reasons they are planning a lower payroll, but that doesn’t mean that they are to the “shake out the couch cushion” stage. A million dollars would seem to be worth not potentially ruining relationships.

Of course, as Joe Sheehan put in his latest newsletter, that risk might be well overstated. Helsley went to arbitration last year and didn’t really seem to care for the experience, which may have made him more likely to settle this year than to repeat the process. Most likely, it’s going to be impossible to know if this affects his long-term relationship with the club as it seems unlikely they’ll be major pursuers of him this off-season or, on the flip side, offer him a contract extension before his time is up.

None of these that are up for arbitration look like core players the club would want to lock up for years to come. Donovan might be the closest thing to that, but they have him for two more years of arbitration. If he has another great year this year, they might look to buy out the arb years next winter, especially if some of the other middle infield options look iffy. The other two are fine players, but they haven’t necessarily proven themselves to be “must sign” guys. In two years—three for Pallante, who has an extra arb year—the club might be ready for them to walk. If not, they have time to mend any fences that might have been damaged.

Should the Cardinals have settled for the small amount of difference? I feel like they probably should have given it isn’t likely an amount that would change any long-term plans they have and would be a nice gesture toward the players. I just don’t think there are going to be significant repercussions even if they wind up going to hearings.

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Random bits:

If you missed it because it was earlier in the week than normal, this week I sat down with Brenden Schaeffer on Meet Me At Musial. We talked about the quiet winter, the front office messaging, and more. Look forward to this week with Bernie Miklasz for many reasons but also to see what his answer is to what I asked Brenden.

Speaking of shows, Gateway to Baseball Heaven should be back this Sunday as David and I talk about this arbitration stuff. Just in case you’ve been missing it.

We are digging out from 10 inches of snow that came down Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Digging is really not the term, though. It’s Arkansas—today’s supposed to be in the 40s and a lot of this will melt off. I don’t have anywhere to go until church tomorrow morning so I’ll let nature take care of most of the hard work, I think. 10 inches is more than we get total in most winters—actually two or three winters combined. When the big ones come, it’s fun. I wouldn’t want to deal with it constantly, though. I know St. Louis has more than its share. One of the reasons I’ve never gone to Winter Warmup is because I’m afraid I’ll get stuck there or on the way.

I need to watch this week’s Skeleton Crew but I’ve seen the first six episodes and it’s been a fun Star Wars show. There’s a significant risk you run when you have a show focused on kid actors but these have done a great job. I’m very interested to see how the show wraps up and if they get a second season what it would be like. It’s not terribly Star Warsy, save some of the trappings, but it’s a nice story nonetheless.