Is The Shopping Done?

Christmastime means wondering what's left for the winter

Happiest of holidays to all of you that may be reading this. Part of my Christmas haul was a new Chromebook and a lap desk, so I decided why not write a Substack post to put them through their paces. (Given this is a smaller than standard keyboard, it’s probably a good idea to get my hands used to where everything should be. Any uncaught errors please blame on that.)

It’s the evening of December 25. For most people, the presents are not only purchased but completely unwrapped. No more lists, no more trying to figure out what that person might like, no more (unless your package is coming from China, which at least one of the gifts for my daughter is) waiting around for the mailman or UPS driver. Where we stand now is where we’ll stand at the end of the Christmas season.

The Cardinals front office, as we have highlighted a number of times now, beat the Black Friday rush and bought all the three pitchers that the rotation desperately needed. So now Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson went under the tree and Mo put a lot of red check marks next to his items. By all reasonable accounts, it was a successful shopping period. He added some trinkets, a Rule 5 reliever here, a Tyler O’Neill trade there, stuffing the stocking with the baseball equivalent of socks and underwear.

The question is whether that’s the entire list. If the Cardinals went to Jupiter with this team, it’s not a bad thing. The lineup stays solid, though there’s still some question about playing time in the outfield and if there are enough at bats for people. The rotation, on paper, is a step up from last year and while last year’s rotation on paper looked better than it did on the field, it seems pretty unlikely that this one will crater like that one, with a couple of caveats that we’ll get to later. The bullpen should be better, both from the emergence of JoJo Romero, the new intriguing arms, and the fact the starters should average much closer to six innings than last season. On paper, as of right now, there’s probably a strong case to be made that the club is the favorite in the NL Central.

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As we know, of course, the game isn’t played on paper. Last year proved how rhe best laid schemes o' mice an' men gang aft a-gley. While it seems unlikely that this squad will wind up challenging the 91 losses of 2023, going into last season we didn’t expect the bottom to fall out either. Sure, there were concerns and issues, but nobody picked the worst record in 30 years.

The focus this winter was on pitching depth but it’s pretty concerning that this club is one Sonny Gray injury away from a full rotation of 4-5 starters. That’s better than some of the people that took the ball in the first half last year but not by a lot and definitely not what you want to see if you are trying to succeed. I’m excited about what Zack Thompson showed last year and it’s not terrible if he’s in the rotation, but it doesn’t really raise the bar either.

The bullpen pieces are tantalizing but few are proven. Ryan Fernandez will be around as a Rule 5 player and you have to figure Nick Robertson will get a long look given the cost to bring him in, but there’s no established pieces there. If Giovanny Gallegos either hasn’t fixed his tipping issue or if that actually wasn’t the problem, you could get into a real dicey back end situation, especially given how Ryan Helsley’s health has typically affected how he gets used.

So the pitching has definitely improved and I don’t think we should shortchange what the front office has done in that regard. I just think they are walking a tightrope with no net again.

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Take it for what it’s worth, but Roster Resource has the final 2023 payroll at $178 million. That’s not necessarily entirely accurate and it doesn’t count all the items that are included for the competitive balance tax, but it’s a good rough marker. The same source notes that currently payroll is projected to be $175 million.

That’s a bit at odds with what the front office said as the winter started. They noted the dropoff with trades out instead of trades in and they intended to get back toward the $190-$200 million range. Assuming their calculations are in line with the numbers above, you are looking at $15-$20 million that they could still spend this winter and maybe still have some room for additions at the trade deadline. My feeling is the more you do now the less you probably have to do at the deadline but I understand leaving some wiggle room for those moves. I don’t know that you need to leave $20 million though.

Of course, the Diamond Sports/Bally issue is a wrinkle that has to be accounted for, but from all indications the club is going to be fully paid for the 2024 season. The Cardinals are one of the most profitable streams Bally has—just look at their TV ratings, even in a bad season—and they would be one of the last to be dropped from the contract. There’s a lot of talk about Diamond Sports relinquishing rights at the end of the upcoming season but for now, things seem to be OK. Which probably means you don’t sign anyone to a long-term deal here (and given that the Yoshinobu Yamamoto dream is dead, that’s a reasonable thing) but it shouldn’t keep you from some sort of addition.

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It wouldn’t surprise me to see another reliever added, though I don’t believe there’s really any interest in Josh Hader. If you weren’t going to go five years on Yuki Matsui, even with the low cost, you probably aren’t going to push the envelope for Hader, especially since there’s likely to be a market for him. A Pat Neshek type, maybe, but that’s really all I’d expect.

It’s not that things can’t happen late. Kyle Lohse famously signed at the beginning of spring training and that turned out pretty well. The Nolan Arenado deal happened as January turned into February. Moves can happen, they just typically….don’t.

I don’t know how many times we’ve thought the Cards would want to make a move in time for Winter Warm-up, only for the MLK Weekend celebration to come and go with no additions. A non-roster invite here or there is about the only news you get for the club after Santa’s put the reindeer away for another season.

This team still needs something. While the “get into October and anything can happen” is true, it’s rare it happens without a two-headed monster at the top of the rotation, which this club doesn’t have. They aren’t in contention for one of the top seeds in the NL, so they’ll have to press their luck a little farther. Returning to October would be great after last season but a two-and-out postseason wouldn’t help quiet any fan grumblings.

I am often wrong so I look forward to some big trade happening hours after I publish this piece, but it feels more and more like this is the club that will be going to Jupiter. It remains to be seen if the shopping list, complete as it is, was enough.

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A hat tip to Dayn Perry, whose use of AI-generated art for his posts led me to try it out for this one. Behold what a computer thinks of a cardinal filling out a shopping list.

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I hope that you had a wonderful holiday season however you celebrate. For me, the Christmas Eve candlelight service at my church is always a highlight. I hope you had time to contemplate the true meaning of this time of year.

Not that presents aren’t fun, of course. I mentioned that I’m using a couple of my gifts for this post. I also got, among other things, a Little Debbie Christmas Tree Cake inflatable that I will probably add to the yard tomorrow and, from my son, a personalized Funko Pop. I’m thinking I may use this on any site that has an avatar for a while.

Also, for those that enjoyed the Christmas light pictures last time out, I had a friend of mine take a few drone shots of the whole thing. I found the results pretty cool.

Allen and I got a pre-Christmas Meet Me at Musial in if you are interested. I hope to maybe do a Gateway this weekend to wrap up 2023. I hope you have a great new year and I hope 2024 is better for all of us than the past 12 months were!