How Important Is This Series?
Cardinals-Cubs at Wrigley. Moment of truth or just a moment?
If you wanted to be dramatic, you could call this weekend series against the Cubs a tipping point. The Cardinals, after finally snapping a six-game losing streak, could do a lot of different things.
They could sweep the Cubs.
This is the option I prefer, but it is also probably the least likely result of these three games. A sweep would tie the Cardinals with the Cubs, perhaps for first place but more likely, given the Brewers are facing the Pirates at the same time, for second a game or so out. There would be momentum going into a stretch of games against teams under .500 and perhaps would keep them buoyant enough while waiting for the trade market to start forming.
They could win the series.
Taking two of three is still a good thing, though it isn’t likely to get them out of third place. However, it would help tighten up the margins and, depending on which game they lost, still provide some of that good feelings and optimism as the Marlins come to Busch. (Less so if they win the first two then drop the last one, of course.)
They could lose the series.
Losing two of three wouldn’t be a disaster, but it wouldn’t be optimal either. The Cardinals would then be four games behind the Cubs and possibly farther behind the Brewers (if they are able to bring the brooms out against Pittsburgh). The Reds have the Rockies this weekend, so slipping into fourth place couldn’t be ruled out either, though perhaps not likely.
They could be swept.
A sweep would be a very, very bad thing. That would put the Cardinals six behind the Cubs and while there would still be 97 games left to play, being a sub-.500 team (they’d be 32-33) in mid-June isn’t conducive to being active on the trade market. The season wouldn’t be over by any means but this would be a long hill to climb with a team that’s already got plenty of questions.
The season is not over no matter how this weekend turns out. That doesn’t mean that there can’t be some significant impacts to it, however.
The Last Time We Met…..
Much was made last time about the Cubs coming to St. Louis for the first time in two years. The opening affair wasn’t worth the hype, though the final score wasn’t really indicative of how the game went. Joc Petersen, who the Cardinals didn’t focus on in the offseason but might work real well right about now, homered to lead off the game. The clubs traded runs (Tommy Edman RBI double, Petersen with a sac fly, Paul Goldschmidt with an RBI double) and it stood at 2-2 after six. Then the bullpen took over for Carlos Martinez and, well, you know that story. Ryan Helsley gave up two runs, and while the Cards got one of them back in the bottom of the frame, it didn’t matter when the floodgates opened in the eighth and Chicago scored eight runs off of Kodi Whitley, Tyler Webb, and Seth Elledge.
Game 2 was the proposal game. Again, the Cubs scored in the first as Petersen was hit by a Miles Mikolas pitch and came around to score on Javy Baez’s single. That was the only run Mikolas gave up, but he only went four innings before leaving with arm issues and going back on the injured list. St. Louis took him off the hook for a decision in the fifth when Edmundo Sosa had a two-out triple and Lane Thomas singled to drive him home. It remained tied until the seventh. As Yadier Molina came to the plate, the stadium scoreboard showed a wedding proposal that got Yadi’s attention. He celebrated with the new couple by homering off of Adbert Alzolay to give the Cards the lead. Giovanny Gallegos and Alex Reyes locked down the win.
The final game, like it will be in this series, was on Sunday Night Baseball. Adam Wainwright took the ball and was outstanding, throwing eight scoreless innings while striking out seven. The problem was that the Cardinals couldn’t do anything against the legend that is Zach Davies and the cast of characters that followed him. The game remained scoreless in the 10th, when the ridiculous zombie runner rule both hurt and helped the Cards. It hurt because that meant Javy Baez’s home run off of Alex Reyes was a two-run shot, but they scored a run in the bottom of the frame off of Craig Kimbrel only because they had the runner placed at second.
Season series: 1-2
The Opponent
Since they left Busch Stadium, the Cubs have continued to thrive. The only series they have lost was a four-game set in San Francisco and they’ve taken series from the Padres both at home and in San Diego. The offense has been led by former Cardinal Patrick Wisdom, who seems to be having a moment. Over the last 15 days, he’s hit eight home runs and has an OPS of 1.435. It does look like Joc Petersen, at least, has cooled off, as he’s hitting .186 over that span, albeit with three home runs. The Cubs have scored double-digits once since the last time the Redbirds saw them (10 against Cincinnati) and their next-highest is seven, so maybe they aren’t necessarily a juggernaut yet.
The pitching has been fairly solid the last two weeks as well. Jake Arrieta has struggled (0-2. 7.59 ERA) and Kyle Hendricks has an ERA over four but has three wins over the period, so shrug.
The Mound Men
Friday: Johan Oviedo (0-2, 5.25 ERA, 6.02 FIP, 5.47 xERA) vs. TBD
Saturday: John Gant (4-3, 2.63 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 5.76 xERA) vs. TBD
Sunday: Carlos Martinez (3-6, 6.21 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 5.69 xERA) vs. TBD
—xERA courtesy of FanGraphs
As of early evening yesterday, the Cubs had not announced their starters, which is fairly inconvenient for me and I wish they’d do better. Given that I have packing to do and a podcast to record, I’m just going to guess a bit at who we will see.
Jake Arrieta was the starting pitcher Wednesday afternoon. The last person that followed him was Kohl Stewart, who has made two starts this year and lasted just 3.2 innings last time, allowing three earned runs. However, he was then demoted but was recalled Tuesday because Adbert Alzolay wound up on the IL. According to that article, Stewart may go Saturday. He has never faced the Cardinals.
That’s probably one of them. Kyle Hendricks went Sunday so he should be rested for Friday and heaven knows if you are the Cubs, you want Hendricks out there against the Cardinals. Hendricks allowed three runs in 6.1 innings while beating the Giants in his last start and was the winner in the blowout game in the first series, giving up three runs (but just one earned) in 6.2 innings. Cardinals did have seven hits in that game, for what it’s worth.
So Hendricks, then Stewart, then likely Zach Davies, who befuddled the Cardinals for five scoreless innings in the Sunday game last time in complete disregard for his typical history against the Redbirds. Davies handled the Padres the last time out, throwing six one-hit innings at that potent lineup.
As for the Cardinals, well, there’s a lot of anxiety. Oviedo looked sharper last time but still didn’t get past the fourth. Gant had some of his issues catch up to him, so it remains to be seen if that was a blip or the start of a trend. Martinez….I mean, he could be dominant. It just hasn’t been that way lately.
The Hot Seat
I would imagine it’s still Jeff Albert, but Mike Maddux has come into view as a target as well. I heard the Bens talking about it on the last Cardinals Off Day and I know that there have been other folks bringing up the idea that he should feel his seat warming as well.
I will say the one thing that Maddux has going for him is a track record. The pitching staff hasn’t been bad the entire time he’s been here, unlike the offense. For instance, last year the Cards were ninth in ERA, 17th in walks, and 8th in WHIP. In 2019, those ranks were fifth, 14th, and seventh. There’s no doubt that everything is going south this year and Maddux has to take some of that blame, but the fact that they haven’t been awful until this year makes me think that his share should be minimal. Unfortunately for Mr. Albert, he doesn’t have that sort of track record to fall back on.
Assorted Crudités
Paul DeJong has been activated from the injured list after going 1 for 10 in Memphis. It’s still remarkable to me that the club will do such a minimal job with the rehab. Jim Edmonds says that hitters don’t really need it, so why not just activate them if you are going to just bring them up at a pre-determined time anyway? Perhaps his at bats looked better than the results, but like 10 AB can tell you anything anyway.
Lane Thomas has not had a hit since May 29, going 0-10 with two walks and five strikeouts. Not that John Nogowski is proving to be any better, but it’s a little surprising Thomas didn’t go down with DeJong’s activation, especially since that probably means Tommy Edman will see a lot of time out there.
Andrew Miller has pitched 4.1 scoreless innings since his return off the injured list and most notably has only walked one batter in that span. He’s given up five hits, so it’s not exactly smooth sailing, but giving his defense at least a chance is more than many of his compadres in the bullpen have done.
Random Links
Currently listening to: Chirps 110: “11 in 11” With Benjamin Hochman. I just realized this week that Alex Crisafulli was not only at Game 6 in 2011, but he was at Game 5 in 2012. I don’t know what the odds are of that, especially given that the latter game was not in St. Louis but in Washington, but I gotta think they are high. Also have to think any game he’s attended since has been a bit of a downer.
As noted before, I will be leaving Saturday to go to Ohio for a week, so your inbox gets a break. I have downloaded a number of podcasts to listen to when the rest of the family has their earplugs in, so I look forward to plugging through those and some books perhaps on the trip.