Hearing the Warmup Music

The large woman is making her way to the stage.

On August 25, 2011, my good blogging friend Christine Coleman and I were at Busch Stadium for a Social Media Night. This was back when the United Cardinal Bloggers were a thing and we had put out a postseason publication the year before. Before we went in for the event and the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates, we sat outside the stadium starting to plan the 2011 version. After all, there was just a month left until the end of the season and, after a sweep by the Dodgers had left them at 67-63, 10 games out of the division and 10 1/2 behind the Braves for the wild card, we needed to get cracking so we could start handing out assignments and be rolling when the season finished. I don’t remember what we were going to write about but I’m sure it had to do with why the Colby Rasmus trade didn’t work and what changes should happen after missing the playoffs two years in a row.

The Cardinals won that night, 8-4. When we left the stadium, we had no idea that we’d seen the beginning of the most remarkable run of Cardinals baseball. We knew nothing of the Braves melting down, Carlos Marmol becoming legendary, and the drama of Game 162. None of that was even a faint possibility.

So I realize that things have happened before and they, in theory, could happen again. However, after watching the Cardinals the last three nights in Cincinnati, I think we can draw one clear conclusion.

They’re done.

Losing three games in a row at this time of year is a tough thing for a team that is fighting for a playoff spot. Losing three games in a row to a team below you in the standings—and, if you go back a bit, eight of the last 10 in teams that were farther down in the NL Central standings—is malpractice. Losing those three games after an off day allows you to run out your top three starters? It’s very difficult to put a positive spin on that one.

Seasons tend to have something that represents them. 2015 was the dominant pitching that led to 100 games. 2013 was the RISP year, when they hit .330 in those situations. This year the term “run differential” is going to be what we take away from it, I think. We’ve spent all year talking about how the team is outplaying their run differential.

We’ve also talked about how run differential can be a little misguided. After all, win five games in a row by one run each and then lose the sixth 7-1 and you are 5-1 with a -1 run differential. It doesn’t tell the whole story but when you run it through the year, it’s a fairly good tool. Some teams will over perform, sure, and some will under perform. Overall, though, run differential gives you a good idea what the team should be.

I don’t think it would surprise you to know that the Cardinals have the largest positive difference between actual wins and projected wins. They have 60, their run differential says they should have 54. Tampa Bay and Toronto in the American League are +5, then Cleveland (+3), Baltimore (+2), and the Angels (+2). Nobody else is more than a win positive and 16 teams—more than half of the majors—are between +1 and -1. In other words, over the long haul, run differential tends to win out.

That may be what we are seeing here. There’s only so long that you can fight off gravity. The pull of mediocrity is very hard to shake. You can cover it up for a while but eventually the long baseball season is going to have you be where you should be.

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Wednesday’s loss left the Cardinals 8 back in the division (pending Milwaukee’s game, which is still going on as I type this) and tied with the Reds for second. Thankfully the Cubs have had their own struggles and the Pirates have lost 10 in a row, which keeps the club from being completely in danger of slipping into last place. Not that it couldn’t happen, of course—Pittsburgh is just 3 1/2 behind St. Louis in the standings and we’ve seen how quickly those games can evaporate.

It’s also not comforting that the expected record right now of 54-67 is EXACTLY what the record was at this time in 2023. That "black swan” season where everything went wrong and it was supposed to be such an aberration? The 2024 squad is just a few lucky bounces (perhaps the dominance of Sonny Gray and Ryan Helsley in the first half) away from duplicating it.

The run earlier in the year, when the club basically took advantage of weaker competition, may have helped put some lipstick on this pig but it seems to be wearing off, leaving the ugly truth behind. With the harder schedule coming, the struggles of the pitching staff, and the still very inconsistent offense, it’s more likely that they’ll wind up closer to the 71 wins from last year than the 82 wins they need to have a winning season.

Which raises the question, now what?

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We like to say that, if this happens or that happens, the Cardinals will have to do X or Y. We thought last year that a historically bad season would inspire new heights of creativity and aggressiveness, only to see the Cards get Sonny Gray and a couple of past-their-prime pitchers as pretty much their only significant moves. (Well, that’s probably underselling the fairly extensive remodel of the bullpen, which has had some strong results.) We have thought in the past that they would have to trade out of hitting depth only to see them continue to horde. We thought they’d use their catching depth this past season or at the deadline only to see the prospects continue to pile up.

So saying that if the Cards finish under .500 for the second straight year, something they haven’t done since before there were divisions (in full seasons, 1994-95 were both strike-shortened) means a complete overhaul seems like wishful thinking. Still, I think there’s a lot of indications that at least the pendulum might swing to some differences.

We talked last time out about the TV contract issues and the court still hasn’t set a new date for the Diamond Sports bankruptcy hearing. With that uncertainty still out there, it seems unlikely that any significant money will be added to the payroll. Which, honestly, isn’t the problem. The problem is how they go about spending the money. The other side of that is not being able to develop minor league talent that can help at the major league level (and keep overall payroll down).

I don’t think Bill DeWitt is all that happy with the lack of production out of the minor leagues. If there were to be any sweeping changes, I think it’d be most likely in the development hierarchy. Being able to have players come up and contribute has been a key part of St. Louis’s success and when that starts to dry up and the players start struggling in the big leagues, the edge they have goes away.

I think John Mozeliak likely steps aside after this season should it wind up continuing as it is. Perhaps he heads to Jupiter to watch over the pitching lab construction. Maybe he becomes a direct assistant to Bill DeWitt and works on big picture items. Whatever the case, it’s untenable that things can remain the same after two seasons of mediocrity.

There’s a video that has been making the rounds lately. It’s Bill DeWitt from the press conference after firing Mike Matheny. The whole presser is here but I’ve cued it up at the important part.

If .500 baseball isn’t acceptable, what can you say about the past two years? It’s a fair point and one that the front office should address.

I’m not suggesting they ditch Oli Marmol (though I think it would be fair to reevaluate hitting coach Turner Ward) but there has to be something that shows that the words that were said six years ago are still the guiding principle for this ownership group. Because the results on the field haven’t been showing that for a while now and it’s starting to show up in the number of fans dressed as empty seats at Busch.

Maybe a fresh voice in Chaim Bloom, who would seem to be the odds-on favorite to be a Mozeliak replacement (though it’s still an open question whether he actually wants the job) or another outside-the-organization person would allow for some reorganization and some different approaches. I don’t think there’s any reason to have a complete housecleaning in the front office and everywhere else but some new blood does seem to be called for.

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As for the rest of this season, I believe the Cards need to start figuring things out for next year. That may mean a lot more days off for Paul Goldschmidt as Alec Burleson or Jordan Walker play first. That should mean Walker playing every day instead of sitting on the bench when he could be continuing his work in Memphis. That means doing everything you can to get Lars Nootbaar on track. That means letting Andre Pallante stay in the rotation over a Lance Lynn or a Steven Matz.

It’d be great if these changes inspired a run. However, we remember 2011 for a reason—it’s a once in a lifetime event. Perhaps it (as well as the much-maligned 2006 team) taught the wrong lessons of “nothing really matters”. Those are lessons that need to be unlearned quickly or the Cardinals are going to have many more chances to draft highly.

Change needs to come. What those changes are I’m not qualified to say but the processes now are putting out a boring, lackluster team. That’s not a ringing endorsement of the status quo.

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We’ve run on too long, but to end on a better note, YouTube’s algorithm spit this out to me over the weekend and it’s absolutely brilliant.