Having The High Ground

For much of the season, the Cards looked up at the Brewers. Things have changed.

The Cardinals opened their home season against the Brewers. It was a glorious time, punctuated by Nolan Arenado winning the game on a home run like this was some sort of movie.

Things went sideways for a while from that moment. Now, though, the Cards take their first trip to Milwaukee and face a team that still promises to be their most notable competition. How they do there could strongly influence how we feel about this team for a while.

The Last Time We Met….

We probably all have a good idea of that last series, but remarkably it’s been over a month since it occurred. That Arenado homer still seems like it was yesterday. The Cards won that game 3-1, of course, but had more difficulty the next two games.

The middle game was a tight affair for the longest time and when the Cardinals scored two in the bottom of the sixth to make the game 3-2, things looked positive, even though the inning ended abruptly when Tommy Edman’s hit that looked to tie the game instead hit Justin Williams on the basepaths. That proved costly, however, because the Brewers returned fire, scoring five against Tyler Webb and Andrew Miller. An Austin Dean homer made it close later on but the Cards dropped it 9-6.

The downward trend continued in the third game. Daniel Ponce de Leon—remember when he was in the rotation?—went out and allowed seven runs (six earned) in the first 1.1 innings and the game was effectively over. We did get to see Johan Oviedo pitch almost five shutout innings and Austin Dean drove in two, but that was about it. Say, wonder if they should bring Dean back up for the week?

The Opponent

The Brewers have been in a rut of late. They did just snap a six game losing streak by winning the last two games of a series against the Marlins, but it’s been somewhat of a mixed back since that final game against the Cards. I mean, they won a series against the Dodgers, but that got sort downgraded when everyone started beating the Dodgers. They’ve lost a series to the Pirates and got swept in four games against the Phillies.

Christian Yelich went on the IL, came back and played a game, then immediately returned to the IL with no timetable for him to get back on the field. It does sound like the team may be getting their ace back this week, which good news for them, less so for the Cardinals.

The Mound Men

Tuesday: Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 3.06 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 5.29 xERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (3-1, 3.38 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 2.23 xERA)

Wednesday: John Gant (2-3, 2.15 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 5.68 xERA) vs. Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 1.73 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 2.45 xERA)

Thursday: Jack Flaherty (6-0, 2.83 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 3.96 xERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (2-2, 1.53 ERA, 0.51 FIP, 1.18 xERA)

—xERA courtesy of FanGraphs

For the past few years, the question around the Brewers is whether they have enough pitching. That answer has been answered over and over in the affirmative and this season seems to be no different.

The Cardinals missed Peralta in the earlier series and only saw him for three innings last season as he pitched out of the bullpen. That was enough to cause concern, however, because he allowed only one hit and an unearned run while striking out four in those two appearances. His last starts against the Cardinals were in April of 2019, where over two outings he allowed seven runs in 6.1 innings. That was a long time ago, however.

St. Louis didn’t have to deal with Woodruff in April either, but they saw him twice last September. The first time he went seven innings (a complete game, since this was part of a double header) and allowed four runs (three earned) while striking out five. The second was much more in line with the stats Woodruff is putting up this season: eight innings, two hits, no runs, 10 strikeouts.

Technically, Thursday’s starter for Milwaukee is still TBD, but all indications are that Burnes will come off the COVID IL and start in this one. Burnes has been sensational all season long and held the Cardinals to one hit over six innings while striking out nine in the Cardinals’ home opener, getting a no-decision. He was more of a mixed bag against them last year, posting a 4.32 ERA in two starts.

As for the Cardinals, the one thing that might be worth watching is how Jack Flaherty does against the squad. The worst games Flaherty had in 2020 had the Brewers on the other side, including a three-inning, nine-run affair. Half of the earned runs Flaherty allowed in 2020 came against Milwaukee—without those starts, he’d have posted a 3.06 ERA instead of his 4.91.

The Hot Seat

As we said before, sweeps cool off a lot of hot seats. Matt Carpenter only got one at bat in the Colorado series and we didn’t see any of Tyler Webb. Perhaps the warmest seat is on John Mozeliak as Albert Pujols gets closer and closer to clearing waivers?

Dispatches From The Front

Jack Stern from Brew Crew Ball was a new addition to the Playing Pepper series this year but I’m hopeful it’s the beginning of a long collaboration. He was nice enough to give us a little update from one that watches the Brewers nightly.

“Injuries have been the main story--and a significant obstacle--for the Brewers. Milwaukee enters this series with 17 players on the disabled list, most notably Christian Yelich. The former National League MVP has been dealing with a persistent back issue, and the club's medical staff has been unable to pinpoint what is causing the issue. The roster has continued to take severe hits over the past week and a half. Omar Narvaez, who has been the team's best hitter, injured his hamstring at the end of April. The absence of Yelich and Narvaez has been a major blow for an offense that was already among the worst in the league. Former top prospect Keston Hiura has been swinging and missing at one of the worst rates recorded to start a season, leaving the Brewers no choice but to demote him to Triple-A. In his absence, the Brewers have turned to an underwhelming combination of Daniel Vogelbach and Billy McKinney at first base.

“The lack of offensive production has resulted in the Brewers struggling to acquire leads, regardless of how well the pitching has performed. Corbin Burnes, who has emerged as a Cy Young candidate, hit the IL for undisclosed reasons last week, but he is reportedly set to return soon. One bright spot in recent weeks has been Tyrone Taylor. The aforementioned injuries have finally opened up consistent reps in the outfield for the former 2012 second-round pick. He's slashing .269/.356/.481 (132 wRC+) with three home runs, and he drove in the winning run in Sunday's series finale against the Marlins. Despite the injury issues and a recent six-game losing streak, the Brewers have still managed to remain above .500 and firmly in the NL Central race.”

Assorted Crudités

Nolan Arenado has a hit in every game but one this month. He’s slashing .364/.432/.697 and playing his normal amazing defense. For his career, he’s got a 1.120 OPS against the Brewers with 11 homers in 37 games.

The Brewers sit currently 27th in baseball in OPS, ahead of just the Mariners, Pirates, and Tigers. That’s in large part due to their .217 team batting average. They do have 41 homers, just three short of St. Louis’s total.

Devin Williams had a 9.82 ERA after his first four appearances. Since then: one run in nine innings with 14 strikeouts. Put that with Josh Hader being Josh Haderish and the Cards better figure out a way to score early.

Random Links

Currently listening to: Cardinals Off Day Episode 6: Pujols. All Ben and Ben had to say was the date for their Box Score of Yore and I was instantly transported back to that game in Wrigley Field. Someone actually burned a DVD of that game for me soon after it happened and I have it in my stash somewhere.

Currently reading: Baseball Prospectus 2021. I always start at the beginning of the annual and work my way all the way through it, picking it up and putting it down, mixing in other books. With the Thrawn book finished I picked it up again. At least this year I was able to read the Cardinals before Opening Day since they rearranged the team essays into divisions instead of alphabetical.

Two interesting posts to check out: Tyler Kinzy writing about if and how Carlos Martinez has been better recently and Matt Graves talking about Harrison Bader’s improved approach, at least in a limited sample.