Fitting 36 Into 26
The skipper says there's too many good players. Kinda.
“There are multiple guys good enough to be on the team that won’t be.”
Those were the words of Cardinals manager Oli Marmol talking with Katie Woo, which our favorite Twitter follow used as part of her most recent roster construction article. I read the beginning of the article and then stopped because I’ve been kicking around working out this roster on “paper” as well and I didn’t want to be too influenced by Katie’s actual knowledge. So here we are.
Marmol has been talking about serious competition all spring long and it’s not been the lip service we’re usually dealing with. By this time in spring at least 23 spots are locked up and probably even more, with maybe one position still left to be determined. This year, it’s not just the last man on the bench that is still in flux or the middle reliever that gets to go north, it’s a lot of things, including who is going to start.
So let’s work through this. It seems unlikely the Cardinals will do anything but a 13/13 split. Going position by position, maybe we can determine a most likely configuration. I doubt it but we’ll see.
Catcher
Lock: Willson Contreras
In flux: Andrew Knizner, Tres Barrera
Obviously there’s not much to say about the starter, given that he received a large contract this offseason to come play baseball in St. Louis. His backup, though, is more interesting. With Contreras unlikely to train for 174 like Yadier Molina, the opportunities for the #2 catcher will be larger.
In truth, there’s not much intrigue here. It seems unlikely that the recent 40-man roster move would be to get Barrera, who is in camp on a minor league contract, on there. It’s in theory possible that the Cardinals could waive Knizner and replace him on the 40-man with Barrera but that seems fairly unlikely as well. If Knizner had been even a hair better this spring, we’re probably not even having this discussion (because, in truth, it’s not like Barrera has lit the world on fire). Unfortunately 4 for 36 with eight strikeouts cracks the door for a little intrigue.
My pick: Conteras, Knizner (2)
Infield
Locks: Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt
In flux: Paul DeJong, Nolan Gorman, Taylor Motter
When you have an MVP on one corner and a near-MVP on the other (both of whom are now national heroes), you aren’t going to worry much about the infield. Add into that mix a guy nominated for two Gold Gloves and a guy that won the first ever utility Gold Glove, both of whom have solid offensive profiles, and all you have to worry about is what to do on the occasional days off.
A month ago, we expected that to be Paul DeJong’s job. We didn’t necessarily want it to be his job, but with another year under contract and the ability to refuse to be sent down, we were pretty much resigned to it. We hoped the stories were true about a swing change leading to at least passable results. He wasn’t going to pass up Tommy Edman for the starting job, not without a lot of things being different, but some semblance of the old Paul DeJong would not have been amiss.
Instead, well, it’s kinda been old Paul DeJong. His back (and as an old fat guy, I feel this) has kept him from taking advantage of the opportunities presented by so many players being off in the World Baseball Classic. He’s rarely even gotten to hit, much less make it to the field, and Monday brought news of a relapse. There’s no doubt that he starts the year on the injured list, which helps us some figuring out the 26-man, even though it is unlikely to be severe enough to warrant him going on the 60-day IL and freeing up a 40-man spot.
Gorman and Motter, though, have done some real good work. Gorman took to heart everything the Cardinals told him to work on this winter and has a .325 average with three homers to show for it. Motter hasn’t been that impressive, though he does have three homers and the ability to move around the diamond. Again, though, that 40-man issue rears its head. It seems unlikely they’d go out of their way to clear a spot for a 33 year old non-prospect, no matter how interesting he’s looked in spring.
My picks: Arenado, Donovan, Edman, Goldschmidt, Gorman (brings us to 7)
Outfield
Locks: Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill
In flux: Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, Juan Yepez
Here’s where we really know almost nothing. Spring opened with us expecting an outfield of O’Neill, Carlson, and Nootbaar left to right. Then Tyler O’Neill comes to camp wanting to play center field and Lars Nootbaar became an international sensation playing center in Japan. (It’s still undetermined whether Emperor Nootbaar will be able to discharge his duties and play for the Cardinals at the same time.)
When Jordan Walker burst onto the scene, everyone started writing off Dylan Carlson. Yet when you look up now, Carlson has 13 RBI which leads the team and is tied with the major league lead for the spring while hitting .275 and showing much more authority on both sides of the plate. So it would seem that he’s still got a pretty good luck on starting in center, at least most days.
So maybe we do have that outfield we thought. However, what do you do with Jordan Walker? I was absolutely sure he was going to Memphis, no matter how well he did, until the Cardinals freed up that 40-man spot last week. It was a notable move and not one that you do, I don’t think (though my co-hosts and I tried wrapping our head around it on both shows this weekend) for just anyone. Walker is not just anyone, though I would think that the next week would still have something to say about whether he’s ready for the majors.
All right, so perhaps you can rotate four guys in three spots and everyone gets some at bats. What about adding Burleson and Yepez in the mix? Yepez, you would think, could see a lot of time at DH and occasionally back up Goldschmidt at first. You feel more comfortable with Burleson playing outfield than Yepez and he could also play first. Spring stats aren’t great for either of them, so you could make an argument for sending either one of them to Memphis to be insurance and to get regular at bats.
We’re also just at seven players, though. If the Cardinals are taking 13, with Paul DeJong out of the picture there’s room for all of them to go north unless the club gets fancy with Motter or another person that’s not on the 40. (There’s no one that stands out in that regard except for Masyn Winn and as much as I’m excited about him, he’s not going to be in St. Louis.) So take them all. Use the DH and a rotation in the outfield. Marmol will have to be creative but I think it could be done.
My picks: Burleson, Carlson, Nootbaar, O’Neill, Walker, Yepez (that’s 13 hitters)
Starting Rotation
Locks: Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright.
Barring some sort of injury, this is the most solidly constructed part of the roster. There’s nobody sneaking in to bump one of these veterans to the bullpen. There’s not one of these guys that’s going to pitch themselves to a DFA. We can talk about sixth starters and the like (and we will in the next section) but these guys are your starting five.
My picks: Flaherty, Matz, Mikolas, Montgomery, Wainwright (5 pitchers, 18 total)
Bullpen
Locks: Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, Jordan Hicks, Andre Pallante, Zach Thompson.
In flux: Genesis Cabrera, Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Anthony Misiewicz, Packy Naughton, Wilking Rodriguez, JoJo Romero, Chris Stratton, Drew VerHagen, Jake Woodford.
And here’s where the craziness really takes hold.
Obviously Gallegos and Helsley are your end-of-game guys. Jordan Hicks has had his issues but no one really expects that he’s going to the minors, if he even could—he’s going to be a free agent this year so surely he’s got the same kind of denial of demotion thing going on that DeJong has. Besides, even with his scuffles he’s major league material. Pallante and Thompson might be a little overstated as locks, given that they both have options, but it’s hard to make an argument for them to start in Memphis. Pallante spent all year in the majors last year and, given his effectiveness against lefties, he may play a role in the plans of some others in this list. Thompson was strong out of the pen last year down the stretch and he’s not given up a run this spring. His future seems a lot clearer than the others on this list.
Let’s tackle the starter/long relief guys first. You know my feelings on Hudson and this spring hasn’t done anything to shake them. It would seem clear that he should be starting in Memphis, working out some of the bugs and getting more in line for being a spot starter if the club needs him in that regard. Libertore has reclaimed some of his prospect status the spring, but now you have to balance whether he is better served starting at Memphis and getting ready for the inevitable injury or being a long man in St. Louis. Those innings may be there—I think Wainwright’s going to go five more often than seven this season—but that’s always a gamble. The same argument goes for Jake Woodford, who threw five scoreless with seven strikeouts today. I think one of them stays in the bigs, one goes to Memphis. Guessing which one, there’s the kicker.
Now let’s look at the traditional relievers. From the left, you have Naughton, Cabrera, Misiewicz, and Romero. The Cards don’t need three lefties, especially with Pallante, and I’d not be surprised if only one of them makes it. Cabrera has the pedigree but that awful end of 2022 still plays a part even if this spring has been pretty good. Naughton and Romero feel like guys that can help—both of them have had their moments—but also feel fungible. (Save for that nice 70 Naughton sports, of course.) The club picked up Misiewicz this spring so there must have been interest there and the results haven’t been bad. I don’t think I’d be shocked if he made the roster.
VerHagen has shown more of the form that the club thought they were getting when they signed him to the two year contract, so while it’s still theoretically possible that they’d cut him, I think he’s probably closer to a lock than “in flux” indicates. Stratton signed a one year deal that avoided arbitration (and probably paid him less than he could have gotten had he gone to it, at least according to MLB Trade Rumors and their calculations) and it’s not quite in the Cardinals’ character to cut a guy like that. That said, his spring hasn’t been super and the cost to let him go wouldn’t be overwhelming.
Finally, there’s the unique case of Rodriguez. Selected in the Rule 5 draft, he’s got to stay on the major league roster all year long or be offered back to the Yankees. The Cardinals have wanted Rodriguez for a bit and his spring has shown tantalizing flashes of what they thought he could do. So I’d say he’s going to the majors except for the fact that I would not at all rule out a trade of a lower prospect (or cash considerations) to the Yanks so they’d have control of him, allowing them to send him to Memphis. In fact, I’m going to count on it.
All of that and what do we know? Little of nothing. But we’ve got to pick eight relievers.
My picks: Gallegos, Helsley, Hicks, Misiewicz, Pallante, Thompson, VerHagen, Woodford.
Ask me tomorrow and the picks may change. The arguments for so many people make sense. It’s going to make for a very interesting last week of spring, don’t you think?
Playing Pepper started at the blog today. We looked at the Nationals, A’s, Reds, and Pirates. I still don’t know that I’m going to do the regular writing over there this season, but I also know my completist nature may require me doing some Heroes and Goats so we’ll see.