Don't Love Me Tender

Yesterday's deadline provides some clues on the current mindset

I have spent all week working on my outside Christmas decorations. When I say all week, I really mean it. I take this week off work and put as much time outside as I can, occasionally working after dark if necessary. There’s about 30 hours of work outside and still a little more to do. I will find a reason to make a post and include its picture when done if there is even one comment asking about it on this post and possibly even if there isn’t.

What that means, though, is that this is the one week when I’m not staring at a screen, keeping up with every rumor or possibility that is floated out there on Twitter. However, things happened late enough last night that I could start to process them as they happened and I figured I’d continue that process by writing about them here.

Last night the Cardinals had to decide who they would tender a contract to for the 2024 season out of the pool of players that were still under their control.

A lot of these were never in debate. Whatever your thoughts about Tommy Edman’s value, the club wasn’t going to just release him into the wind and get nothing back. There’s been chatter about Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill having trade value so obviously they wanted to keep that option open. JoJo Romero has emerged as a valuable part of the bullpen and Ryan Helsley was already there. Perhaps you make an argument for John King to go if you are really trying to rework things, but he had a solid couple of months after coming over in trade and he’s not going to cost much.

The rest of the players (including one Katie missed, Juan Yepez) had an argument to stay and an argument to go. The suspense yesterday was finding out which argument the club found most compelling and how many (it seemed clear not all were staying) would be non-tendered. At the deadline, judgment was rendered.

So what, if anything, does this tell us about the state of play this winter?

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Let’s start with the easiest one. Juan Yepez had clearly fallen out of favor with the organization. He went from one of the few bright spots in the 2022 postseason to getting a total of 60 at bats in 2023. His Memphis numbers didn’t stand out either and the role of bat first/glove maybe outfielder is currently being played by Alec Burleson. His path back to the big leagues was a very narrow road and it was much more likely next season would have been his fourth go-round in AAA.

I think even a Cardinals front office which hadn’t indicated a willingness to change and adapt their approach probably lets Yepez go here. You can argue he didn’t get enough playing time in the bigs this year given his track record and I could understand that. I think it’s telling, though, that no team wanted to trade for him, even a cash considerations deal like the Cardinals did for Riley O’Brien recently. If Yepez was this solid offensive contributor you would think some team might pay a little to not have to wait until he was on the market.

We’ll see where he winds up and I wish him well, but there are a lot of folks thinking that Yepez is going to be the next Randy Arozarena or Adolis Garcia. You never rule it out but Yepez did get a little more evaluation than those two did. He’s more likely to be a Garcia but I’m not sold that it’s going to happen nor that the Cardinals should have waited around until it did.

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The most surprising move out of all of this was Andrew Knizner. Many people had been advocating for his non-tender and the addition of Pedro Pages to the 40-man earlier in the week was a sign the club was at least considering it. However, I thought Knizner was the perfect backup catcher for the club. He had a solid offensive year for the role and you didn’t worry about his development being stunted if Willson Contreras takes most of the time behind the plate. Add in the intangibles of being a favorite of the staff and the unofficial “captain” of the team and it seemed like he’d be fine.

The club thought differently, believing it was time for Ivan Herrera even though he had been granted a fourth option year. This move brings a little intrigue to how the catching position is going to be approached this coming year. Obviously Contreras is no Yadier Molina, playing 85% of the games or anything, but there still should be an expectation he starts behind the plate 60-65%, right? Does that impact Herrera? If the breakdown is 60/40 you probably feel good about Herrera not being stunted. That’s less than 100 games behind the plate for Contreras, though, who was slated to catch like 125 when he signed. How often do you want him in the DH spot instead of a Burleson? If Contreras is catching less than 100 games now, what is he going to be doing in Year 5 of this contract?

(All that said, more time with Ivan Herrera isn’t a bad thing. The club also is starting to transition into its next great group, it feels like, with Herrera, Jordan Walker, and Masyn Winn likely all on the field in numerous games next year with Victor Scott II perhaps joining them in September.)

Backup catchers usually have a long life span. Knizner might be one of the best Immaculate Grid options in a few years if he can keep his offensive gains. It’ll be interesting to see where he winds up and how he’s used going forward.

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The moves that have the most import for this winter, though, were the non-tendering of Dakota Hudson and Jake Woodford.

Anyone that has read me over the last few years or has listened to any of the podcasts know that Hudson was not one of my favorite players. I am sure he is a wonderful person and he worked hard, but he was very frustrating to watch. So many walks, such a plodding game. He had no strikeout ability and while he did tend to get some ground balls which turned into double plays, relying on that is a very dangerous thing for a starter. Woodford was a poor man’s version of Hudson, someone without quite the pedigree or results but a similar style of play.

If the Cardinals were coming off of their normal 90 win season, though, both of these guys are extended an offer. “We need depth in the rotation and we know that these two can give us quality innings and we have the flexibility to move them from Memphis to St. Louis, from the rotation to the bullpen, depending on our needs.” If it’s one thing the club never wanted to do it was to give away an arm that they might need later on and the $5 million or so it would take to keep both of them wasn’t a huge obstacle. Payroll’s got to go somewhere, right?

Yet this version of the Cardinals let them both go. They didn’t keep Hudson because of his experience. They didn’t keep Woodford because he’d be cheaper. They cut bait on both of these guys. So what does that tell us?

One, it means that the Cardinals are serious when they are going to be active in the free agent market. There was always a concern that the club would get a starter or two and then fill in with the organizational depth. Now that depth is Zack Thompson, who pitched well last year and might be ready for a starting spot but it isn’t guaranteed. Instead of having three pitchers to rotate through that last spot, there’s one, which means more pitchers need to be acquired.

Two, it’s clear that the club really is trying to revamp their pitching strategy. Hudson and Woodford were classic examples of the old idea of getting grounders and not worrying about the strikeouts. If things hadn’t changed, they’d be back, but this shows that St. Louis isn’t just providing lip service to the idea that they need more strikeout capability. The times, they are a-changin’.

Three, it’s possible that they are cutting as many places as they can to really go big on at least one free agent starter. I continue to hold out hope that the club decides to remake its reputation in one grand gesture by signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but even if it’s Aaron Nola and another quality pitcher, the money would seem to be flowing this winter.

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Many of these players I have already looked at in the Exit Interview series over at the other blog. We’re going alphabetically starting with Nolan Arenado and so far we are through Matthew Liberatore. If you are interested in reading them, you can find them all here. Fair note that the Knizner one published just hours before the deadline yesterday so I am remarkably wrong there.