Change Comes For Us All

Keep doing what you've always done and you aren't necessarily going to get what you always got

My church is closing.

It’s never been a big church, but over the last few years attendance has continued to dwindle. Over the last two or three years, a good number of pillars of the church have passed on, some expectedly, some not. Denominational changes were the last straw, but it likely only hastened the inevitable. We were never able to get new blood in, to find ways to reach out to those that needed to hear the message.

Out of this, though, is probably going to come something new. Our church and one the town over are talking about coming together, in a new place and doing things a little different than we have before. Maybe it’ll work, maybe it won’t, but we’ve reached the point where we have to be open to new ideas and new opportunities, of doing things like Sunday evening services that go against our traditional approach. While I am mournful of the only place of worship I’ve ever known not being around, I am hopeful of this new beginning being something special.

The St. Louis Cardinals aren’t closing. We are not like the fan base in Oakland, watching the team we grew up leave the market for….smaller markets. (Seriously, the whole Oakland thing makes no sense and is a huge mess. Greed is a terrible thing.) Things aren’t that drastic. However, it definitely feels like we’re reached the end of the line for this era of Cardinal baseball. More tellingly, it feels like ownership has figured that out as well.

This morning, an excellent story by Katie Woo (who often drops excellent stories) was posted at The Athletic. If you don’t have a subscription, you really should, but see if you can get one of those 7-day trials or whatever if they still have them and use it to read this story. If what Katie writes is true, and I have absolutely no reason to believe it’s not, we’re going to see things we’ve not seen in a while coming to St. Louis.

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The thrust of the story is that the Cardinals have neglected their player development for way too long and the piper is now being paid. Some of the details are just shocking, honestly, even for those of us who knew that there was something wrong in the development process.

Probably the most telling detail is the fact that the Cards have five full-time minor league instructors. That’s just over one per level, though of course they would be dealing with all the different levels. Katie notes that the Brewers have 17, which is one of the reasons they have been able to become the new Cardinals of the NL Central. They are doing the work and pushing the envelopes that St. Louis used to do before they got—complacent is a tough word to use but it feels like the most accurate.

It’s also telling who the five are. Russ Steinhorn is 39 and has been on the job five years. Brock Hammit, his assistant, is probably about 10 years younger (I can’t find a specific birth date and the media guide, perhaps tellingly, gives no detailed information about these five other than including them on a list of personnel). It’s probably notable that the hitting side of things seems have been more advanced because these guys are younger and they probably have a feel for what’s modern and what’s going to be next.

The pitching side has Tim Leveque, who is 44 but has been with the Cardinals in this role for almost 19 years, and Rick Harig, who was scouting in the ‘80s according to his LinkedIn so I’m assuming he’s in his early 60s and he’s been with the club 8 1/2 years. (He’s got a web site if you are interested.) Harig also is only attached to the Jupiter complex, which might be a more intensive job once the long-gestating pitching lab is built but right now probably limits his influence.

All of this is overseen by Jose Oquendo. We all love the Secret Weapon and I have no doubt that he’s been an asset for the organization in this role. He’s also 61 and while I’m sure that he’s keeping up with the latest trends, it’s also harder to adapt those at that age. Things are significantly different than they were when he played. They are different than when he started coaching, honestly. If I’m right, it’s been six years since he’s been in the major league dugout. Again, he’s probably staying on top of things as best he can but it’s fair to note what might be some limitations.

That’s your development staff. I know that they are supported by coaching staffs at each level, analytic staffs in the organization, but you are putting quite a burden on just a few shoulders. It’s not a surprise that things are crumbling.

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What’s also leading to some of the problems is the one bucket approach.

Jason Hill, noted payroll calculator, asked this question back at Blogger and Podcaster Day: are there separate “buckets” (or budgets) for the major leagues, the minor leagues, infrastructure, and things like that. John Mozeliak answered that there was basically one pot of money. Spending on the big league team meant less for the minor league team. Technology additions for the minors might mean less additions to the majors.

Katie references this again in her article and to some degree, it makes sense. If Bill DeWitt Jr. just wants to spend $200 million this year, it doesn’t matter where it goes, that’s what he wants to spend. It might as well all be together, right?

Maybe. But I’m also wondering if it might not have been more valuable to say, “Hey, we’re giving up to $165 million for the majors, $20 million for the minors, and $15 million for infrastructure” just to use an example. Mostly, you can make sure that some money is getting invested in the future of the franchise instead of robbing Peter to pay Paul. There’s going to always be the temptation to make sure the big league squad is taken care of because that’s what people are paying to see. If you set different budgets, it seems to me that you become more disciplined about how you spend your money and it makes you come up with better plans (or, perhaps, then push for an increase from ownership if necessary).

If the Cardinals had made a concerted effort to at least spend a dedicated amount on the minors, you wonder how much of the last two years (and, even though they were making the playoffs, even before that) would have been avoided. Of course, you have to spend wisely (which has been a problem at the major league level). Which gets us back to personnel.

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We were fairly sure that the announced departure of Gary LaRocque earlier in the month was the canary in the coal mine of significant changes but Katie’s article makes it clear that’s the plan. There seems to be two plans of attack here—either Chaim Bloom takes the job or he picks the person that takes the job.

Bloom’s got a great track record in development so there’s a strong argument to see if you can’t hire him for this job and then look for a different person as president of baseball operations next winter after John Mozeliak’s contract runs out. It’s possible that Bloom would like to focus on this strength rather than all the other things that come along with the GM/POBO role. It’s not like there aren’t a lot of intriguing names that could fill the spot if he stayed in the development role.

That said, POBO comes with more power and more money, so it’s very possible Bloom would like to hold out for that spot. Apparently Bloom has been hired full-time sometime over this summer, per Katie’s article, so he’s obviously fully invested in the club. If someone else is named to the position, I would say that’s a telling sign that they’ve worked out the lines of succession and Bloom will be POBO for the winter of 2025.

From all indications, the club does plan a press conference for Monday and it’s likely some of this will be clarified in that availability. It’s even possible Bloom and Mo will sort of share the role in 2025, though what that means for Michael Girsch and Randy Flores, I don’t know.

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If the Cardinals are changing their focus, what does that mean for this winter?

For one thing, it seems like they aren’t completely willing to go full bore into this change idea. Katie’s article notes that everyone in the coaching staff that is under contract is expected back and they are likely to renew those that have expiring contracts, including hitting coaches Turner Ward and Brandon Allen.

The return of hitting coaches to an offense that is currently 15th in OBP, 19th in OPS, and 22nd in home runs is mind-boggling. If the offense had been even league-average, odds are we’re talking about who they’ll match up with in the first round of the playoffs right about now. For all the doom and gloom around the rotation coming into the season, that’s not why the Cards are barely over .500. (OK, Miles Mikolas didn’t help matters, granted.)

I put this out on Twitter yesterday after Paul Goldschmidt hit his 22nd home run:

Paul Goldschmidt is tied for 54th in the major leagues in home runs. I’m not going to sort through every team, but I imagine the teams he would be leading besides the Cardinals are few and far between. Replacing the hitting coaches would seem to be an easy way to try to trigger something for next season. Is it all their fault? No, of course not. However, coaches are also somewhat disposable. As Ben Godar pointed out on a recent Cardinals Off Day, most coaches have a bag of tricks and after a period of time, those tricks don’t work and they need to move on somewhere else that’s not used to them. It’s hard to imagine that Ward has more tricks that will actually work next year.

I’m fine with bringing everyone else back. I think Oli Marmol has done well enough this year and if you look at the current record of 81-78 versus the expected record of 74-85, some of that is because Marmol has made the right choices in close games. A lot of it is because Ryan Helsley is dominant, I get that, but Marmol still has to get the game to Helsley. He’s not been perfect, but I don’t think he’s been fireable.

People don’t come for the coaching staff, though. My personal thinking is that, if the Cardinals are going to start dedicating more of that pot of money to the minors, it feels very unlikely that Goldschmidt returns. Even if the Cards wanted to try to engage with him, someone out there is going to pay him much more than St. Louis will want to with this mindset and he’d be foolish not to take that opportunity, especially if it is with a team that looks to contend.

I think Lance Lynn probably retires, though you could make an argument that they should pick up his option rather than Kyle Gibson’s. There’s a non-zero chance they let them both go, honestly. If you aren’t necessarily looking at 2025 as a competitive year, why do you want to spend $12 million on Gibson when you can maybe find another veteran cheaper or just fill those spots with people like Gordon Graceffo and Adam Kloffenstein until Quinn Matthews is ready. (I think Tink Hence, at best, gets a late season callup next year.)

I also think that you don’t spend $7-8 million on a closer. The aforementioned Jason Hill did his first rough pass at payroll for 2025 and ballparked Helsley right in the middle of that range. Helsley is probably the most valuable asset this team has when it comes to cost control and performance. For a team looking to retrench (at minimum), trading him for some cost-controlled assets would seem to be a no-brainer.

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The Cards aren’t looking to burn it all down, of course. Katie does note that Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado all have no-trade clauses that they might want to waive if the team is going to scuffle the next two or three seasons.

Contreras, maybe I could see the club moving on from. It would be disappointing, especially since it would have a hint of retaliation for his comments that were made after the last home game. That said, the club has two catchers that have proven that they can hold their own in the major leagues and one that just won the MVP of the Texas League at Springfield. Contreras’s contract is not onerous and there could be a market for him. I would hate to see him go, because I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Contreras yet and he was so fired up to be a Cardinal, but I’d say this one is 50/50.

I don’t think the Cards would want to move on from Gray, especially if they want to let Lynn and Gibson go. They need to put some sort of competitive product on the field and Gray’s currently the only pitcher you can count on. Erick Fedde will be with the team, but there’s at least a debate about whether he can repeat this year. Andre Pallante made strides but he’s not at all ready to front a rotation. If Gray demanded a trade, they could accommodate him, but trading Gray starts to get you closer and closer to that “tanking” label that the club has no intention of applying.

I admit I’m biased when it comes to Arenado. I’m a big fan and I don’t want to see him go anywhere else. I also think that it wouldn’t really be cost-effective for the Cards to try to trade him. It seems likely they’d have to eat probably more than half of the salary and even then you don’t know what sort of prospects that you’d get back. Arenado made strides in the leadership department as well this year and I think, with Goldy gone, you are going to need that from a guy that plays every day. I just don’t think the benefits of trading Nolan outweigh the costs, but I admit some may see it differently. I have a feeling, though, Arenado would probably not waive his NTC but instead try to stick it out and hope to win in St. Louis before the contract expires.

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I don’t think the Cardinals are actually all that put out about this story coming out.

I think they are glad to have this start to set the stage for their discussions that are coming Monday. I hope that the club realizes if you tell the fans that the goal is to return to the sustainable pipeline that led to so many of the competitive teams of the past, especially since the change from Walt Jocketty to Mozeliak, that people can understand that. Are they going to be thrilled? Probably not, but they are also going to be able to respect that there’s a goal and a plan other than continually buying 35-year-old pitchers in free agency.

There are going to be those fans that say, “Well, why doesn’t Bill DeWitt just authorize more money, ignore the competitive balance tax, etc.” There’s some truth in that, but the Cardinals have gotten so far away from the foundation of what they need to be that just throwing money at free agents isn’t going to help that much. It’d be awesome to have Juan Soto here, but are folks going to be happy when he plays on a series of sub-.500 teams? Probably not.

There are some that are going to think that DeWitt just wants to shift back to this to save money. There’s no doubt that plays a role in the whole thing, of course, especially when they see that they’ve missed their attendance goal and might for another couple of years and when the TV contract situation is still up in the air. That said, the money they have spent recently hasn’t been used in the most efficient or effective way, so perhaps putting some controls on things will help. All in all, though, the best Cardinal teams have had home-grown talent (or smart long-term trades) supplemented with free agents, which is what the club is aiming to return to. The savings are nice, but I don’t think they are the main event.

It would be nice to have a minor league system with prospects that can make a difference again, ones that you can be excited to see. There aren’t just a whole ton of those out there now, it doesn’t feel like. Matthews, Hence, Hooks, JJ Wetherholt, perhaps a handful of others. It would be nice to have them come up and be the contributors we hope they could be. It would be nice to have them stick at the big leagues instead of being jerked up and down the minor league ladder.

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Change has to come. James Earl Jones said the one constant in all the years has been baseball, but baseball hasn’t been constant itself. The game is there, the history is there, but how to be good at it, how to identify and develop talent, how to succeed is always in flux.

For too long the Cardinals have relied on The Cardinal Way. Finally, it sounds like they are ready to write a new chapter to that instruction manual.