A Case Study in Misery

Arizona proves that, as bad as it is right now, it could be worse

It’s bad right now for the Cardinals. Really bad. Getting beat by Detroit and Pittsburgh bad. However, it’s not yet Arizona bad.

When Arizona won Saturday night, it stopped a road losing streak of 24 games, the longest in major league history. (They lost on Sunday, unable to sustain the momentum.) Soon after they beat the Cardinals in the final game of a four-game set out in the desert, the Diamondbacks lost 17 in a row. A team that was 14-12 at the end of April fell to 19-36 by the end of May and comes into this series at 22-57. That’s 3-21 this month, which is almost unfathomable.

How did this happen? After all, while nobody necessarily thought that the Diamondbacks would be contenders for the NL West, not with the Padres and Dodgers out there, they had a solid chance to be third with a fairly good team. Injuries have burned them, much like they’ve done to the Cardinals. None of the parts of the Paul Goldschmidt trade are in the major leagues right now—Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly are on the injured list while Andrew Young has been sent back down to AAA. Nine pitchers are on the injured list, with Kelly and outfielder Kole Calhoun joining them.

Injuries can’t explain it all, though when you run through a pitching staff like that, it makes a dent really, really quick. Their staff ERA is the worst in the National League, with only the Orioles worse in baseball. Teams are hitting .270 against them while they are only hitting .233. Pick a stat, pick an angle, it’s going to look bad for the Diamondbacks.

The Cardinals can say, “there but for the grace of God go I” but, in reality, that path isn’t that far away. St. Louis has posted a 7-17 record in June, just four games better than Arizona. The D-Backs have 16 home runs this month (worst in the majors), the Cardinals have 17. The Redbirds’ June OPS of .615 is dead last and 20 points worse that Arizona. On the pitching side, the Cardinals do have an ERA about a run better than the Snakes but it’s still over five.

It’s unlikely, especially if Adam Wainwright stays healthy and effective, that the Cardinals are going to set any major league record for losses. However, without significant changes, this team could go down as one of the most disappointing in team history. Just because they aren’t as bad as Arizona doesn’t give them license to avoid criticism.

The Last Time We Met…..

Things weren’t exactly easy the last time these two teams got together, even though the Cardinals took the first three before dropping the finale. In the opener, Carlos Martinez took a no-hitter and a 4-0 lead into the seventh, but couldn’t record an out as he gave up two hits and a run-scoring double to David Peralta. Genesis Cabrera allowed the other two runners to score and loaded the bases with no out, but Ryan Helsley came in and struck out the side to keep it a one-run game. That lasted one inning, until Pavin Smith doubled in Ketel Marte. It stayed tied until the 10th, when the Cardinals got their zombie runner in while Daniel Ponce de Leon made sure the Diamondbacks didn’t.

The Cardinals again ran out to a lead in the second game, scoring four in the first off of Madison Bumgarner, capped by Tyler O’Neill’s second home run in as many nights. Arizona got one in the first, one in the second, and matched the Cards’ run in the third to make it 5-3. St. Louis scored two more in the fourth but Johan Oviedo still couldn’t make it through the fifth to qualify for a win, walking six in his 4.1 innings of work. The Cards took an 8-5 lead into the ninth and turned to Ponce de Leon again, who loaded the bases with one out but eventually escaped the jam.

Game 3 was a little easier, with another big inning paving the way for a victory. This time, it was the third, when St. Louis put up five runs built on a consistent attack. Yadier Molina, Tyler O’Neill, and Justin Williams all had RBI in the frame. Adam Wainwright threw five innings plus (he didn’t record an out in the sixth) and allowed four runs, but the big guns (plus Tyler Webb) made it very anti-climatic.

With a series win assured, Mike Shildt decided to rest folks in the final game. The starting lineup included Matt Carpenter at second and leading off, Edmundo Sosa batting fifth, Jose Rondon playing third, and Lane Thomas in right. That lineup was unable to support Kwang Hyun Kim when was not completely on his game (he allowed four runs in five innings). Tyler Webb accounted for three runs in a third of an inning and the Diamondbacks snapped their 13 game losing streak. (Yes, they’ve had TWO double-digit losing streaks. What a year out in Phoenix.)

The Opponent

We’ve talked a lot about Arizona above. The last time they didn’t lose a series was when they split against the Marlins May 10-13. They haven’t outright won a series since taking three of four from the Rockies April 29-May 2.

They can hit some (batting average and OBP are in the top 20 in MLB, which isn’t much but it’s something) but they aren’t out of the bottom three in a lot of pitching categories.

There is no reason the Cardinals, even in their smoking-like-a-shot-down-A-wing state, should lose a series to the Diamondbacks. They also shouldn’t have lost to Detroit and Pittsburgh, so take THAT what it’s worth.

The Mound Men

Monday: Jake Faria (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 3.77 xERA) vs. Wade LeBlanc (0-1, 6.75 ERA, 5.25 FIP, 5.39 xERA)

Tuesday: Caleb Smith (2-3, 3.03 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 4.45 xERA) vs. Carlos Martinez (3-9, 6.78 ERA, 4.82 FIP, 5.98 xERA)

Wednesday: Riley Smith (1-3, 5.71 ERA, 5.20 FIP, 5.43 xERA) vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (1-5, 3.98 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 4.30 xERA)

—xERA courtesy of FanGraphs

Monday will be a bullpen game for the Diamondbacks, as Faria has only three appearances this year (totaling four innings) with no starts on his ledger. Faria’s no rookie, having bounced around the league since 2017, starting with Tampa Bay before spending a season with the Brewers. It was with Milwaukee in 2019 when he made his only appearance against the Cardinals, giving up four runs in 1.1 innings that September. He’s riding a two-inning scoreless streak coming into this one.

Then the Cards face a couple of Smiths. Caleb Smith is turning in a pretty solid season overall, with an ERA+ of 135. Of course, he’s not started much either, with only six of his 24 appearances coming at the beginning of games. (He’s finished three, for what it’s worth.) All but one of those starts has come in the month of June, where’s he posted a 2.73 ERA and opponents are batting .172 against him. The Cardinals saw him in relief in the past series, which was his last non-starting outing, and he threw 2.1 scoreless innings while striking out five. His last two starts, against the Dodgers and Brewers, had him allowing one total run in 12 innings, striking out 11 (but walking eight).

Riley Smith is also a pitcher that’s done more bullpenning than starting, with five starts in his 19 appearances. Unlike Caleb, he hasn’t started since mid-May, though he’s had two outings in that span where he’s gone over four innings so it’s not completely strange to see him begin the game on the bump. His last time out, the Padres got to him for four runs in 3.2 innings, but he appeared twice in the Cardinals series in May and threw a total of five scoreless innings.

As for St. Louis, the fact that Wade LeBlanc is starting and isn’t the hurler we have the most concern about should really tell you all you need to know.

The Hot Seat

It’s probably easier to list those that aren’t drawing a lot of criticism. Adam Wainwright. Nolan Arenado. Tyler O’Neill. Lars Nootbaar (yet). Giovanny Gallegos. Alex Reyes. Maybe Genesis Cabrera. That feels like about it.

Assorted Crudités

Love that Lars Nootbaar, but it should be noted he’s 4-19 with only one extra base hit. The sputtering offense means that he’s been valuable with his three RBI and two runs scored, plus he still has some adjusting to the league to do, but it’s worth keeping an eye on to see if the buzz around his name and newness starts to wear off.

Paul DeJong got an opposite-field hit late Friday and hit a home run on Saturday. He got another hit on Sunday, which means he’s 3-7 with a walk over his last three games. It’s not much, but when you’ve been as far down as DeJong has been, you take whatever signs of life that you can find.

Since Yadier Molina came off the injured list in early May, he’s hitting .221/.277/.324 compared to his early start of .323/.366/.631 before the injury. June’s been particularly rough on him (.172/.274/.203) though he had four hits in the last three games versus seven the rest of the month. We’ll see if he’s starting another surge or just had a good weekend.